Weatherbug says the prob of rain from 9:00 to midnight is 96%.
Weather.com says the prob of rain from 9:00 to midnight is 10%.
I've always thought that weather forecasts were biased towards poorer weather-- if there's to be error, you'd rather it in that direction-- but that is a remarkable spread.
Does anyone know of any systematic studies on weather forecasts and bias?
2 comments:
Dan Sutter's done loads of work on the political economy of weather forecasting.
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/how-valid-are-tv-weather-forecasts/
This guy tracked the forecasts of the four local news stations' weather forecasts for 7 months and compared them to NOAA's forecast and the actual weather.
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