tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post5430297897479654631..comments2024-03-11T07:41:19.149-04:00Comments on The Perfect Substitute: Is this Recession Deeper than Others?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post-72265327046280376442009-01-10T11:00:00.000-05:002009-01-10T11:00:00.000-05:00I hope you are right, but the indicators you are u...I hope you are right, but the indicators you are using are lagging indicators. Using those, we still can't say where we are today.<BR/><BR/>According to the Conference Board, we are right in the thick of it and things are getting worse. I hope they are wrong (and often times they are). Here is their statement on leading and coincident indicators:<BR/><BR/>"The leading and coincident economic indexes have been falling for more than a year now, and the breadth of their deterioration has been very widespread. The rates of their six-month decline have picked up in recent months and are now the largest since 1991. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2008, down from a 1.8 percent average annual rate of growth for the first half of the year. All in all, the continued widespread deterioration in the composite indexes suggests that the recession that began in December 2007 will continue into the new year, and the contraction in economic activity could deepen further in the near term."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com