tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post5674080540801521669..comments2024-03-11T07:41:19.149-04:00Comments on The Perfect Substitute: Bad betsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post-17715610167092591322009-07-30T21:24:44.412-04:002009-07-30T21:24:44.412-04:00P.S. I am all about betting on ideas. Both sides o...P.S. I am all about betting on ideas. Both sides of the GW debate would gain a lot of respect from me if they use their personal portfolios to speculate on future prices.Justin M Rosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06990658017459237627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post-89707800128066473272009-07-30T14:33:39.244-04:002009-07-30T14:33:39.244-04:00If you recall, The Climate Bet: http://perfectsubs...If you recall, The Climate Bet: http://perfectsubstitute.blogspot.com/2009/05/climate-bet.html<br /><br /><br />I would take Rob's point one step further (as I did in the above post). Not only is it silly to say "jeez it is cold out today, what about global warming" it is probably not helpful to think about a global mean temperature, which gw skeptics love to cite in their favor.<br /><br /><br />My concern primarily revolves around which is the best path to pursue? If we accept that at <i>t+n</i> we will have to face environmental costs, is it better to maximize economic growth to better pay those costs in the future, or to try and face smaller costs in the preceding periods? I can accept either strategy, but I am not as confident that the latter strategy would succeed in the political process over n periods. Are politicians beter at trading long term costs for short term ones, or at making policies that encourage growth? Both are admittedly difficult, but I think the latter is more likely to succeed.<br /><br />I also would like to point out, that there is more to the environment than sea levels and weather. In many countries they have very immediate, undoubtedly true costs (as opposed to probabilistic ones). We take for granted that we have an environment where the water will not kill us, but that is not true for a lot of places that could use some economic growth.Justin M Rosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06990658017459237627noreply@blogger.com