tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post8944995288241772349..comments2022-11-27T06:13:14.914-05:00Comments on The Perfect Substitute: Assorted thoughts, October 29 editionUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post-75195368169265296682008-10-30T10:12:00.000-04:002008-10-30T10:12:00.000-04:00Great theorem! I like what actually happened:"Not ...Great theorem! I like what actually happened:<BR/><BR/>"Not only did the monkeys produce nothing but five pages consisting largely of the letter S, the lead male began by bashing the keyboard with a stone, and the monkeys continued by urinating and defecating on it."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post-23967788120216312692008-10-30T09:53:00.000-04:002008-10-30T09:53:00.000-04:00That is an interesting way of looking at it, and n...That is an interesting way of looking at it, and not incorrect. I do offer the following volley:<BR/><BR/>It could be possible that there would be another event that could have the similar predictive power-- but how "simple" could the event be?<BR/><BR/>What comes to mind is what I've heard said about making comparisons about baseball players. Many times, the question will involve many conditions-- "How many players have hit X home runs, have Y RBIs, stole Z bases, hit R doubles and had Q walk-off hits in 7 consecutive seasons?" For each condition you add, you lose some of the importance of the comparison.<BR/><BR/>To find such a non-conditional predictive event...that is what is interesting to me. It's the last Redskins home game, as opposed to the "rushing yards of Washington's QB when the game is at home, the receiving yards of the backup punter plus the number of fumbled interceptions when on the road."Matt E. Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00290146649328322694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20142791.post-24071074023984414962008-10-30T08:30:00.000-04:002008-10-30T08:30:00.000-04:00On the Redskins:If we actively searched for an eve...On the Redskins:<BR/><BR/>If we actively searched for an event over an entire domain of events (not just NFL) that occurred at least as often as elections, then by way of probability theory we should find some event that would have a perfect track record on predicting election outcomes. Ex: Suppose we asked people to guess each the outcome for each of 1,000 coin flips, then eventually we would find someone who would get all 1,000 correct. Essentially, I suggest to you that the Redskins prediction power stems from the infinite monkey theorem!<BR/>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem_in_popular_cultureJustin M Rosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06990658017459237627noreply@blogger.com