Thursday, September 10, 2009

Intrade on on the Probability of Health Care Reform

Intrade on the probability that "A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009"
Trade volume is about 12 thousand, and Intrade closed the day at just under 25%.

The narrative I am inclined to draw from it is that the expectations of his speech acted to improve the likelihood slightly, but after a day of analysis, the likelihood has returned to the pre-speech announcement levels.

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