Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Florida State assumes the top spot, followed by Alabama, Missouri, Stanford and Baylor.
Is it too soon to crown Miami (OH) the worst team in FBS football? Their lead for the bottom spot continues to widen.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Monday, November 11, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 11
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Alabama tops the rankings, followed by Stanford, Florida State, Missouri and Ohio State. And, in what has become a weekly certainty, Miami (OH) holds a nearly 10 point lead on the bottom spot in the rankings.
As the end of the season is approaching, it's time for our first foray into the Gus BCS projections! Should the season end today and the Gus+ were used in place of the BCS, which teams would go to which BCS bowls?
The champions of the following conferences automatically qualify for the following bowls:
• Atlantic Coast Conference - Orange Bowl
• Big Ten Conference - Rose Bowl
• Big 12 Conference - Fiesta Bowl
• Pac-12 Conference - Rose Bowl
• Southeastern Conference - Sugar Bowl
The BCS Bowls choose to fill their at-large spots in the following order: Orange, Sugar, Fiesta. Further, a team taken from an automatic bowl qualification to play in the National Championship Game gets replaced before the at-large slots are filled in the order of finish in the final rankings.
So, without further ado...
National Championship Game: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Oregon (At-large #1)
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (NCG replacement #1) vs. Brigham Young (At-large #2)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (Big 12 champion) vs. Houston (At-large #3)
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Clemson (NCG replacement #2)
Alabama and Stanford are the top two teams in the rankings; Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are the remaining conference champions (as they are the highest ranked in either of their conferences), and fall into their assigned slots. Houston-- the highest ranked team from the AAC-- qualifies automatically but it chosen as an at-large for a bowl. The Sugar Bowl, having lost Alabama, choose its replacement first and goes with the highest ranked eligible un-claimed team-- and that's #4 Missouri. The Rose Bowl selected next to fill the void created by Stanford, and they select #7 Clemson. The Orange Bowl gets the first at-large choice and selects #8 Oregon. Teh Sugar bowl chooses next and is forced to pass on #9 Texas A&M (no more than two teams from the SEC), #10 Virginia Tech (no more than two teams from the ACC), #11 Auburn (no more than two teams from the SEC), and settles on #12 Brigham Young. The Fiesta Bowl chooses last and must choose the champion from the AAC, #18 Houston.
As the end of the season is approaching, it's time for our first foray into the Gus BCS projections! Should the season end today and the Gus+ were used in place of the BCS, which teams would go to which BCS bowls?
The champions of the following conferences automatically qualify for the following bowls:
• Atlantic Coast Conference - Orange Bowl
• Big Ten Conference - Rose Bowl
• Big 12 Conference - Fiesta Bowl
• Pac-12 Conference - Rose Bowl
• Southeastern Conference - Sugar Bowl
The BCS Bowls choose to fill their at-large spots in the following order: Orange, Sugar, Fiesta. Further, a team taken from an automatic bowl qualification to play in the National Championship Game gets replaced before the at-large slots are filled in the order of finish in the final rankings.
So, without further ado...
National Championship Game: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Oregon (At-large #1)
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (NCG replacement #1) vs. Brigham Young (At-large #2)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (Big 12 champion) vs. Houston (At-large #3)
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Clemson (NCG replacement #2)
Alabama and Stanford are the top two teams in the rankings; Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are the remaining conference champions (as they are the highest ranked in either of their conferences), and fall into their assigned slots. Houston-- the highest ranked team from the AAC-- qualifies automatically but it chosen as an at-large for a bowl. The Sugar Bowl, having lost Alabama, choose its replacement first and goes with the highest ranked eligible un-claimed team-- and that's #4 Missouri. The Rose Bowl selected next to fill the void created by Stanford, and they select #7 Clemson. The Orange Bowl gets the first at-large choice and selects #8 Oregon. Teh Sugar bowl chooses next and is forced to pass on #9 Texas A&M (no more than two teams from the SEC), #10 Virginia Tech (no more than two teams from the ACC), #11 Auburn (no more than two teams from the SEC), and settles on #12 Brigham Young. The Fiesta Bowl chooses last and must choose the champion from the AAC, #18 Houston.
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 10
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Florida State's victory of Miami last weekend give them a one-hundredth of a point edge over Missouri. Ohio State, Stanford and Alabama round out the top 5.
Surprise of the week? BYU slides in at #6, ahead of, among others, undefeated Oregon and Baylor.
Potential BCS teams Fresno State (31) and Northern Illinois (39) sit well outside of the Gus+ Top 16.
And, at the other end of the spectrum, Miami (OH) keeps its stranglehold on the final spot with four games to play.
Surprise of the week? BYU slides in at #6, ahead of, among others, undefeated Oregon and Baylor.
Potential BCS teams Fresno State (31) and Northern Illinois (39) sit well outside of the Gus+ Top 16.
And, at the other end of the spectrum, Miami (OH) keeps its stranglehold on the final spot with four games to play.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 9
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Alabama assumes the top spot, followed by Ohio State, Stanford, Missouri and Florida State. The lowest ranked unbeaten team is Northern Illinois at 38; the highest ranked team without a win is Purdue at 101. (Do note that the Boilermakers lone win on the season came against FCS Indiana State.)
Once again, Miami (OH) refuses to budge from its place at the bottom of the rankings.
Once again, Miami (OH) refuses to budge from its place at the bottom of the rankings.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 8
This week's Gus Rankings are here. Missouri tops the list this week, followed by Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Stanford.
Surprise team of the week? Utah, at 3-3, finds itself at #8, just a slot behind fellow 3-loss Georgia. A close loss to Oregon State combined with wins over Stanford and BYU gets the Utes over the 11-point mark.
At the other end of the spectrum, Miami (OH)'s loss to Akron has given the RedHawks a commanding 5.5 point edge on the final spot.
Surprise team of the week? Utah, at 3-3, finds itself at #8, just a slot behind fellow 3-loss Georgia. A close loss to Oregon State combined with wins over Stanford and BYU gets the Utes over the 11-point mark.
At the other end of the spectrum, Miami (OH)'s loss to Akron has given the RedHawks a commanding 5.5 point edge on the final spot.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 7
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. A few notes:
- Georgia, at 4-2, still finds themselves at the top of the rankings. Let's see how that's possible. First off, both of their losses came to teams that themselves have no losses. So, no points to be lost there. On top of that, one of their losses-- their first-- was close, by three points to Clemson. A three point loss is actually a 23.8% win-- so Georgia receives a little less than a point (for this week, anyway-- these are flexible by week). Their loss last weekend, to Missouri, was by 15 points and thus yielded a victory of just a shade under 1%-- but since Missouri also has no losses, Georgia gained about .03 points for that loss as well.
Interestingly, Georgia's overtime victory over Tennessee-- which Gus+ denotes as a 50% win and a 50% loss, yielded Georgia exactly 0 points this week (though provided the Volunteers with 0.5 points).
- Much the same could be said of LSU as well, as they find themselves at #2 with a loss to their record. Their setback, to Georgia in fact, was by 3 points, and also counted as a 23.8% victory. Because Georgia is not unblemished, on net this loss costs LSU about 0.8 points this week, but may well be a positive on net should Georgia continue to win football games.
Enjoy!
- Georgia, at 4-2, still finds themselves at the top of the rankings. Let's see how that's possible. First off, both of their losses came to teams that themselves have no losses. So, no points to be lost there. On top of that, one of their losses-- their first-- was close, by three points to Clemson. A three point loss is actually a 23.8% win-- so Georgia receives a little less than a point (for this week, anyway-- these are flexible by week). Their loss last weekend, to Missouri, was by 15 points and thus yielded a victory of just a shade under 1%-- but since Missouri also has no losses, Georgia gained about .03 points for that loss as well.
Interestingly, Georgia's overtime victory over Tennessee-- which Gus+ denotes as a 50% win and a 50% loss, yielded Georgia exactly 0 points this week (though provided the Volunteers with 0.5 points).
- Much the same could be said of LSU as well, as they find themselves at #2 with a loss to their record. Their setback, to Georgia in fact, was by 3 points, and also counted as a 23.8% victory. Because Georgia is not unblemished, on net this loss costs LSU about 0.8 points this week, but may well be a positive on net should Georgia continue to win football games.
Enjoy!
Wednesday, October 09, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 6
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Georgia maintains its grip on the top spot, with Florida State, Alabama, Stanford, and Ohio State rounding out the top 5. At the bottom, Miami (OH) holds the distinction of being Gus' Worst Team in America.
Thursday, October 03, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 5
Here is this week in Gus+. Alabama assumes the top spot, followed by Georgia, Florida State, Washington and Oklahoma. New Mexico State, long a titan in the battle for the worst team FBS team in America, claims the bottom slot. South Florida is the lowest ranked BCS school.
There are only a couple of teams perfectly tied in the rankings; the degree of separation this early in the season as compared to the traditional Gus Rankings is impressive.
There are only a couple of teams perfectly tied in the rankings; the degree of separation this early in the season as compared to the traditional Gus Rankings is impressive.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 4
Here are this week's Gus Rankings, which are starting to round into shape even after only four weeks. Georgia, Alabama, UCLA, and Arizona/Florida State/Oklahoma State sit at the top, while Air Force lays claim to the worst team in the country.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 3
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Louisville tops the list, followed by Ohio (!), Oklahoma in third, and Arizona/Oregon/UCLA all tied for fourth. New Mexico State, per usual, has staked an early claim to the bottom spot.
As wins and losses accumulate over the next few weeks, early-season close games should provide a bit more clarity.
As wins and losses accumulate over the next few weeks, early-season close games should provide a bit more clarity.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
2013 Gus Rankings: Introducing Gus+
Welcome to another year of the Gus Rankings! As you know, the Gus Rankings are an objective ranking system that focuses on simplicity in generating a college football ranking for all 124 FBS full members. You can find the original post here. Given its simplicity, I've always thought that it's impressive how close to a more reputable computer ranking it ends up being.
This year, and henceforth, we're going to try something a little bit different. Every year, a new wrinkle or two is going to be added to the Gus Rankings to attempt to correct for a perceived shortcoming in the original rankings. In keeping with the original spirit of the Gus Rankings, additional adjustments will be 1) objectively defensible to the largest extent possible, and 2) completely transparent in terms of how the calculations are done. Don't know the algorithm that Sagarin uses for his ratings? Don't worry-- that'll never be the case here. The downside is we're losing a bit of the simplicity that made the rankings straight-forward and easy to interpret. I will do my best to arrange to have the original Gus Rankings alongside the new and improved Gus Rankings, so whatever flavor of Gus you enjoy (or ranks your team higher) you can have at the ready.
I had large plans for this year's adjustments-- enough to work on to provide several years of improvements. I think some of them could 1) take some more thought on the objectivity front, and 2) could definitely take some thought on how to implement them so as to minimize the week-to-week effort on my end. So patience here will win out.
Nevertheless, I believe taking a piecemeal approach can prevent anything too drastic from happening on the fly-- after all, I only have so much Excel ability. Further, adding in different features at different times should give a sense for how adjusting for different factors play into the rankings at the end of the day. I view it as an experiment in power rankings-- and since mine are the only ones I know of that straddle the line between silly-in-construction and break-out-the-supercomputer-to-calculate-them, I think there's something to be taken from different aspect of a power ranking.
With that out of the way, here's what's changed to generate this year's rankings-- Gus+.
- I've been struck in the past at how much an end of the game scenario can really swing things for a team. It's not terribly surprising-- after all, when the only thing that counts is your opponents' wins or losses, a flip from one to the other is going to be a big deal. But I don't think that should be such a violent swing. So this year's adjustment deals with that issue.
- Many power rankings deal with margin of victory; Gus+ now does the same. We view close games as part victory and part loss. Now, point differential across the entire spectrum of scores shouldn't all have the same impact. In terms of the chances of winning a game, a field goal to extent a lead to 5 points is much more impactful than a field goal to extent a lead to 53 points. So, all wins over 16 points will be considered 100% wins.
Is 16 arbitrary? Yes. But that's two touchdowns and two two-point conversions, and that's what we're going with.
Games within 16 points are assigned a percent win and a percent loss for each team; one team's percent victory is their opponent's percent loss and vice versa. I considered a range of functional forms to capture this-- something that needed to have a fairly high rate of change around closer scores and then flattening out as it approached 16. The inverse hyperbolic sine provides this form quite nicely-- and is certainly defensible as objective as, conveniently enough, I did not derive the distribution of the inverse hyperbolic sine.
- Overtime games have always bothered me. We judge the vast majority of games on sixty minutes of game play. Why are there a subset of games where we consider more time? That seems arbitrary to me, especially in a power rankings format. So all overtime games, regardless of winner, are now 50% victory and 50% loss. Whether the team ultimately won or lost will play a role in the secondary effects of your other opponents' rankings but not directly within the overtime game. The secondary effects aren't trivial in theory-- maybe these games need to be considered pseudo-ties moving forward, with all of the appropriate adjustments therein-- though in practice there have been exactly three overtime games in the first two weeks. It's something to think about moving forward. That is how ties will be dealt with this year.
- Without further ado, here are this season's first Gus+ Rankings.
- As always, the early portion of the season does not lead to much variation in the rankings. Generally this falls by the wayside after a few weeks; the adjustment for margin of victory should bring about enough variation perhaps a week or two sooner. There is considerably more variation this year as compared to last year's Week 2 rankings.
- It is interesting to me that the largest score is 1; basically, no team has recorded two significant victories over two teams that, in each of their other games, recorded victories themselves. I'm fairly certain I've got everything arranged properly-- there is a team at -2 (Idaho!), and, since the reverse of the above statement could be made, I think the calculations are accurate. And to be fair, only 2 teams had 2 points (or, more accurately, more than 1 point) at this juncture last year, so we're not entirely away from normalcy here.
Comments welcome! I'm excited to see how it all shakes out.
This year, and henceforth, we're going to try something a little bit different. Every year, a new wrinkle or two is going to be added to the Gus Rankings to attempt to correct for a perceived shortcoming in the original rankings. In keeping with the original spirit of the Gus Rankings, additional adjustments will be 1) objectively defensible to the largest extent possible, and 2) completely transparent in terms of how the calculations are done. Don't know the algorithm that Sagarin uses for his ratings? Don't worry-- that'll never be the case here. The downside is we're losing a bit of the simplicity that made the rankings straight-forward and easy to interpret. I will do my best to arrange to have the original Gus Rankings alongside the new and improved Gus Rankings, so whatever flavor of Gus you enjoy (or ranks your team higher) you can have at the ready.
I had large plans for this year's adjustments-- enough to work on to provide several years of improvements. I think some of them could 1) take some more thought on the objectivity front, and 2) could definitely take some thought on how to implement them so as to minimize the week-to-week effort on my end. So patience here will win out.
Nevertheless, I believe taking a piecemeal approach can prevent anything too drastic from happening on the fly-- after all, I only have so much Excel ability. Further, adding in different features at different times should give a sense for how adjusting for different factors play into the rankings at the end of the day. I view it as an experiment in power rankings-- and since mine are the only ones I know of that straddle the line between silly-in-construction and break-out-the-supercomputer-to-calculate-them, I think there's something to be taken from different aspect of a power ranking.
With that out of the way, here's what's changed to generate this year's rankings-- Gus+.
- I've been struck in the past at how much an end of the game scenario can really swing things for a team. It's not terribly surprising-- after all, when the only thing that counts is your opponents' wins or losses, a flip from one to the other is going to be a big deal. But I don't think that should be such a violent swing. So this year's adjustment deals with that issue.
- Many power rankings deal with margin of victory; Gus+ now does the same. We view close games as part victory and part loss. Now, point differential across the entire spectrum of scores shouldn't all have the same impact. In terms of the chances of winning a game, a field goal to extent a lead to 5 points is much more impactful than a field goal to extent a lead to 53 points. So, all wins over 16 points will be considered 100% wins.
Is 16 arbitrary? Yes. But that's two touchdowns and two two-point conversions, and that's what we're going with.
Games within 16 points are assigned a percent win and a percent loss for each team; one team's percent victory is their opponent's percent loss and vice versa. I considered a range of functional forms to capture this-- something that needed to have a fairly high rate of change around closer scores and then flattening out as it approached 16. The inverse hyperbolic sine provides this form quite nicely-- and is certainly defensible as objective as, conveniently enough, I did not derive the distribution of the inverse hyperbolic sine.
- Overtime games have always bothered me. We judge the vast majority of games on sixty minutes of game play. Why are there a subset of games where we consider more time? That seems arbitrary to me, especially in a power rankings format. So all overtime games, regardless of winner, are now 50% victory and 50% loss. Whether the team ultimately won or lost will play a role in the secondary effects of your other opponents' rankings but not directly within the overtime game. The secondary effects aren't trivial in theory-- maybe these games need to be considered pseudo-ties moving forward, with all of the appropriate adjustments therein-- though in practice there have been exactly three overtime games in the first two weeks. It's something to think about moving forward. That is how ties will be dealt with this year.
- Without further ado, here are this season's first Gus+ Rankings.
- As always, the early portion of the season does not lead to much variation in the rankings. Generally this falls by the wayside after a few weeks; the adjustment for margin of victory should bring about enough variation perhaps a week or two sooner. There is considerably more variation this year as compared to last year's Week 2 rankings.
- It is interesting to me that the largest score is 1; basically, no team has recorded two significant victories over two teams that, in each of their other games, recorded victories themselves. I'm fairly certain I've got everything arranged properly-- there is a team at -2 (Idaho!), and, since the reverse of the above statement could be made, I think the calculations are accurate. And to be fair, only 2 teams had 2 points (or, more accurately, more than 1 point) at this juncture last year, so we're not entirely away from normalcy here.
Comments welcome! I'm excited to see how it all shakes out.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Bowl Edition
Want to know how Gus would perform in a bowl pick-em pool? So do we. Here's how he'd pick his winners and assign his confidence points. (The final Gus Rankings are here, which incorporate last weekend's Army/Navy game.) Confidence points are assigned in parenthesis by virtue of the difference in points in the Gus Rankings. For games with the same difference in points, confidence points are then assigned by difference in ranking. If that was the same, then the game with the higher ranked pair received more confidence (Gus is decidedly risk-preferring). And Syracuse and West Virginia have the exact same record and the exact same number of points...so Gus claimed his Mountaineer roots for the last confidence wager.
Addendum: By request, here are the final conference rankings:
1. SEC: 17.43
2. Big 12: 12.30
3. Big 10: 9.00
4. Pac-12: 8.25
5. Big East: 1.75
6. ACC: -3.25
7. MAC: -7.95
8. WAC: -8.43
9. MWC: -10.40
10. Sun Belt: -10.50
11. C-USA: -19.33
Addendum: By request, here are the final conference rankings:
1. SEC: 17.43
2. Big 12: 12.30
3. Big 10: 9.00
4. Pac-12: 8.25
5. Big East: 1.75
6. ACC: -3.25
7. MAC: -7.95
8. WAC: -8.43
9. MWC: -10.40
10. Sun Belt: -10.50
11. C-USA: -19.33
| New Mexico | Nevada vs. Arizona | Winner: Arizona (29) | |||
| Potato | Toledo vs. Utah State | Winner: Utah State (9) | |||
| Poinsietta | San Diego State vs. BYU | Winner: San Diego State (26) | |||
| St. Petersburg | Ball State vs. UCF | Winner: Ball State (18) | |||
| New Orleans | East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette | Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette (10) | |||
| Las Vegas | Boise State vs. Washington | Winner: Boise State (21) | |||
| Hawaii | SMU vs. Fresno State | Winner: Fresno State (33) | |||
| Little Caesars | Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan | Winner: Western Kentucky (17) | |||
| Military | San Jose State vs. Bowling Green | Winner: San Jose State (32) | |||
| Belk | Duke vs. Cincinnati | Winner: Cincinnati (30) | |||
| Holiday | UCLA vs. Baylor | Winner: UCLA (22) | |||
| Independence | Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio | Winner: Louisiana-Monroe (13) | |||
| Russell Athletic | Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers | Winner: Rutgers (28) | |||
| Texas | Minnesota vs. Texas Tech | Winner: Texas Tech (23) | |||
| Armed Forces | Rice vs. Air Force | Winner: Air Force (8) | |||
| Fight Hunger | Arizona State vs. Navy | Winner: Navy (24) | |||
| Pinstripe | Syracuse vs. West Virginia | Winner: West Virginia (1) | |||
| Alamo | Texas vs. Oregon State | Winner: Oregon State (15) | |||
| Buffalo Wild Wings | Michigan State vs. TCU | Winner: Michigan State (11) | |||
| Music City | Vanderbilt vs. NC State | Winner: Vanderbilt (19) | |||
| Sun | Georgia Tech vs. USC | Winner: USC (27) | |||
| Liberty | Iowa State vs. Tulsa | Winner: Tulsa (31) | |||
| Chick-fil-A | Clemson vs. LSU | Winner: LSU (12) | |||
| Heart of Dallas | Purdue vs. Oklahoma State | Winner: Oklahoma State (25) | |||
| Gator | Mississippi State vs. Northwestern | Winner: Northwestern (14) | |||
| Capital One | Georgia vs. Nebraska | Winner: Nebraska (7) | |||
| Outback | South Carolina vs. Michigan | Winner: South Carolina (16) | |||
| Rose | Wisconsin vs. Stanford | Winner: Stanford (35) | |||
| Orange | Northern Illinois vs. Florida State | Winner: Northern Illinois (2) | |||
| Sugar | Florida vs. Louisville | Winner: Florida (34) | |||
| Fiesta | Oregon vs. Kansas State | Winner: Oregon (3) | |||
| Cotton | Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma | Winner: Oklahoma (5) | |||
| Compass | Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi | Winner: Pittsburgh (4) | |||
| GoDaddy.com | Kent State vs. Arkansas State | Winner: Kent State (6) | |||
| BCS Championship | Notre Dame vs. Alabama | Winner: Notre Dame (20) |
Monday, December 03, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 14
Here are the final Gus Rankings of the year. (Army plays Navy next week but that should have no bearing on either end of the rankings.) Notre Dame maintains a stranglehold on the top spot. Stanford, Florida, Ohio State and Alabama round out the top 5. Notre Dame claims the Gus National Title easily with a win over Alabama in the National Championship Game, though also has a fair chance to claim the GNT even with a loss to Alabama depending on how the remaining bowl games shake out. A Florida win over Louisville presents the strongest threat to Notre Dame's top spot. We shall see how it all shakes out!
On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico State claims their own national title-- Gus' Worst Team in America. New Mexico State edged out Southern Mississippi over the last weekend; perennial favorites Akron and Massachusetts finished just behind the Aggies.
As these are the final Gus Rankings, Gus would have the BCS as follows:
National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champions)
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big 10 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. San Jose State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Louisville (Big East champion)
The National Title Game features the top two teams, Notre Dame and Stanford (technically, Stanford and Florida are tied-- if you put Florida in the title game, simply swap Florida for Stanford). As Stanford is the Pac-12 winner, the Rose Bowl gets first choice in replacing them and the highest remaining team is Florida. They would face Wisconsin, automatic qualifiers from the Big 10.
The Fiesta Bowl gets the next choice of teams. Kansas State, champions of the Big 12, automatically qualify. The next highest remaining eligible team is Oregon at #6. Alabama automatically makes the Sugar Bowl as SEC champions; the Sugar Bowl is left to choose between two other automatic qualifiers-- Louisville as Big East champions, and...San Jose State! (Gus overlooked the Spartans last week on the incorrect assumption that a non-BCS-conference automatic qualifier needed to be a conference champion. No such requirement exists.) Everyone knows Northern Illinois' story by now, and they do finish at #16 in the final Gus Rankings...but San Jose State outpaces them at #14, and both teams are well ahead of Big 10 champion Wisconsin (#37) and Big East champion Louisville (#29). SJSU, as the highest remaining eligible team, heads to the Sugar Bowl. That leaves the Orange Bowl with Florida State (ACC champions) and Louisville.
Next week, we'll update the rankings to capture Army/Navy and pick the winners of every bowl game.
On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico State claims their own national title-- Gus' Worst Team in America. New Mexico State edged out Southern Mississippi over the last weekend; perennial favorites Akron and Massachusetts finished just behind the Aggies.
As these are the final Gus Rankings, Gus would have the BCS as follows:
National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champions)
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big 10 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. San Jose State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Louisville (Big East champion)
The National Title Game features the top two teams, Notre Dame and Stanford (technically, Stanford and Florida are tied-- if you put Florida in the title game, simply swap Florida for Stanford). As Stanford is the Pac-12 winner, the Rose Bowl gets first choice in replacing them and the highest remaining team is Florida. They would face Wisconsin, automatic qualifiers from the Big 10.
The Fiesta Bowl gets the next choice of teams. Kansas State, champions of the Big 12, automatically qualify. The next highest remaining eligible team is Oregon at #6. Alabama automatically makes the Sugar Bowl as SEC champions; the Sugar Bowl is left to choose between two other automatic qualifiers-- Louisville as Big East champions, and...San Jose State! (Gus overlooked the Spartans last week on the incorrect assumption that a non-BCS-conference automatic qualifier needed to be a conference champion. No such requirement exists.) Everyone knows Northern Illinois' story by now, and they do finish at #16 in the final Gus Rankings...but San Jose State outpaces them at #14, and both teams are well ahead of Big 10 champion Wisconsin (#37) and Big East champion Louisville (#29). SJSU, as the highest remaining eligible team, heads to the Sugar Bowl. That leaves the Orange Bowl with Florida State (ACC champions) and Louisville.
Next week, we'll update the rankings to capture Army/Navy and pick the winners of every bowl game.
Monday, November 26, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 13
Here are the updated Gus Rankings. Notre Dame still holds the top spot, followed by Florida, Ohio State, Stanford and Oregon.
At the other end of the spectrum, Southern Mississippi holds a slim one point advantage over Massachusetts for the last spot. Southern Mississippi has the distinction of being the only FBS team to schedule all 12 of their games against FBS opponents and lose them all. Don't sleep on the Aggies of New Mexico State, however-- they have one remaining game next weekend against 8-loss Texas State. A loss there should clinch the bottom spot for the perennial last spot contenders.
Here are the updated Gus BCS predictions (check the rules and assumptions from last week):
National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Florida (At-large)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (Big 10 Champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Kent State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Rutgers (Big East champion)
Following the letter of the BCS law, Kent State makes it by virtue of being in the top 16, winning their conference and finishing ahead of Rutgers/Louisville.
Swap Florida and Alabama and that's exactly how I see things shaking out after this weekend.
Also interesting to note that unless something weird happens this weekend, 3 of the top 4 teams in the final BCS rankings will not only have not won a conference title, they won't have played in a conference championship game. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, and both Florida and Oregon's one-loss kept them from their respective conference championships.
As a side note: What if Navy and/or Army were undefeated and a factor in the BCS? The point is moot-- the current structure of the BCS allows only 40-50 of the 124 FBS teams the ability to win the title, and Army/Navy aren't in that minority-- but would the BCS decision be pushed back by a week?
At the other end of the spectrum, Southern Mississippi holds a slim one point advantage over Massachusetts for the last spot. Southern Mississippi has the distinction of being the only FBS team to schedule all 12 of their games against FBS opponents and lose them all. Don't sleep on the Aggies of New Mexico State, however-- they have one remaining game next weekend against 8-loss Texas State. A loss there should clinch the bottom spot for the perennial last spot contenders.
Here are the updated Gus BCS predictions (check the rules and assumptions from last week):
National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Florida (At-large)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (Big 10 Champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Kent State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Rutgers (Big East champion)
Following the letter of the BCS law, Kent State makes it by virtue of being in the top 16, winning their conference and finishing ahead of Rutgers/Louisville.
Swap Florida and Alabama and that's exactly how I see things shaking out after this weekend.
Also interesting to note that unless something weird happens this weekend, 3 of the top 4 teams in the final BCS rankings will not only have not won a conference title, they won't have played in a conference championship game. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, and both Florida and Oregon's one-loss kept them from their respective conference championships.
As a side note: What if Navy and/or Army were undefeated and a factor in the BCS? The point is moot-- the current structure of the BCS allows only 40-50 of the 124 FBS teams the ability to win the title, and Army/Navy aren't in that minority-- but would the BCS decision be pushed back by a week?
Monday, November 19, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 12
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Notre Dame holds a sizable advantage over #2 Ohio State. Stanford finds itself at #3 after their win over Oregon, Nebraska sits at #4 and Alabama is at #5.
At the bottom of the spectrum, Southern Mississippi charges to a one point edge over Akron. Since Southern Mississippi finishes with 7-loss Memphis, Akron finishes with 3-loss Toledo, and Massachusetts ends with 6-loss Central Michigan, the Golden Eagles seem to be in line to take the title of worst FBS team.
At this stage of the game, it's fun to project whom Gus would place into each of the BCS game. The bowl lineup is as follows:
National Championship Game - BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
Rose Bowl - Ben Ten Conference Champion vs. Pac-12 Conference Champion
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Conference Champion vs. At-large
Sugar Bowl - SEC Champion vs. At-large
Orange Bowl - ACC Champion vs. At-large
Note that the Big East Conference champion does not automatically qualify for a particular bowl, so they can be viewed as a mandatory at-large.
Should a conference champion qualify for the National Championship game from a conference that is tied to another bowl, that bowl gets first choice on replacing that team from the eligible pool of teams. If both teams are conference champions, the #1 BCS team is replaced first.
In 2013, at-large spots are filled in the following order: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
Conference champions are determined by the highest spot on the Gus Rankings should any discrepancies arise.
So that gives us the Gus BCS:
National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (Big 10 Champion) vs. Oregon (At-large replacement for Stanford)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Clemson (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Rutgers (Big East champion)
Notice that Clemson is higher than Florida State in the Gus Rankings but cannot win the ACC as they are not in the ACC Championship Game. But not a bad slate! As far as my two cents, I think we end up seeing the following-- we'll see how things can change over the next two weeks:
National Championship Game: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers
A few notes:
- I think Florida State beats Florida this weekend in Tallahassee. That should eliminate Florida from BCS consideration.
- Stanford beating UCLA two weeks in a row would be impressive; should that not happen, Stanford will be out of the BCS (well, they could lose next week, Oregon State could beat Oregon, then Stanford could come back and beat UCLA in the Pac-12 title game). The real issue for the Fiesta Bowl is if Oregon makes it to the Rose Bowl. Let's say they want to take a big name to offset the less-than-big-name of Kansas State; Oregon fits that role beautifully and they'd take Oregon in a heartbeat if they could. On top of that, they should be able to since they choose from the at-large pool first. Only the Sugar Bowl would likely have the chance to beat them to Oregon, but that doesn't really make sense for anyone involved for Oregon to end up in New Orleans.
But the Fiesta Bowl can't take Oregon if they end up as Pac-12 champions. There shouldn't be any SEC teams left at that point; one will likely be in the title game, and the Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement pick and likely take another SEC team. Conferences can't have any more than two teams, so that eliminates Texas A&M. Oklahoma would be an interesting pick for a rematch with Kansas State, and I wouldn't normally think them to do that...but who is left? Clemson to Tempe? Rutgers? Oregon State would have three losses in this scenario so they're out, Texas would as well. This scenario probably won't happen but it's definitely feasible...that would be an interesting decision to make. If I had to guess, I'd probably say Oklahoma, but the Fiesta Bowl folks can't be liking that too much. They just can't expect Clemson to draw across the country, and you can say the same for Rutgers in light of the UConn experience a few years ago.
- I suppose you could make the argument for a two-loss Georgia (or maybe Florida) team in the Sugar Bowl instead of LSU. Georgia would have made the SEC title game and had a better in-conference record, but (1) LSU is the home-state team and (2) it's not like the Sugar Bowl has looked to find the best remaining teams to fill their slots in the past (see: Michigan, 12 months ago).
At the bottom of the spectrum, Southern Mississippi charges to a one point edge over Akron. Since Southern Mississippi finishes with 7-loss Memphis, Akron finishes with 3-loss Toledo, and Massachusetts ends with 6-loss Central Michigan, the Golden Eagles seem to be in line to take the title of worst FBS team.
At this stage of the game, it's fun to project whom Gus would place into each of the BCS game. The bowl lineup is as follows:
National Championship Game - BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
Rose Bowl - Ben Ten Conference Champion vs. Pac-12 Conference Champion
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Conference Champion vs. At-large
Sugar Bowl - SEC Champion vs. At-large
Orange Bowl - ACC Champion vs. At-large
Note that the Big East Conference champion does not automatically qualify for a particular bowl, so they can be viewed as a mandatory at-large.
Should a conference champion qualify for the National Championship game from a conference that is tied to another bowl, that bowl gets first choice on replacing that team from the eligible pool of teams. If both teams are conference champions, the #1 BCS team is replaced first.
In 2013, at-large spots are filled in the following order: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
Conference champions are determined by the highest spot on the Gus Rankings should any discrepancies arise.
So that gives us the Gus BCS:
National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (Big 10 Champion) vs. Oregon (At-large replacement for Stanford)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Clemson (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Rutgers (Big East champion)
Notice that Clemson is higher than Florida State in the Gus Rankings but cannot win the ACC as they are not in the ACC Championship Game. But not a bad slate! As far as my two cents, I think we end up seeing the following-- we'll see how things can change over the next two weeks:
National Championship Game: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers
A few notes:
- I think Florida State beats Florida this weekend in Tallahassee. That should eliminate Florida from BCS consideration.
- Stanford beating UCLA two weeks in a row would be impressive; should that not happen, Stanford will be out of the BCS (well, they could lose next week, Oregon State could beat Oregon, then Stanford could come back and beat UCLA in the Pac-12 title game). The real issue for the Fiesta Bowl is if Oregon makes it to the Rose Bowl. Let's say they want to take a big name to offset the less-than-big-name of Kansas State; Oregon fits that role beautifully and they'd take Oregon in a heartbeat if they could. On top of that, they should be able to since they choose from the at-large pool first. Only the Sugar Bowl would likely have the chance to beat them to Oregon, but that doesn't really make sense for anyone involved for Oregon to end up in New Orleans.
But the Fiesta Bowl can't take Oregon if they end up as Pac-12 champions. There shouldn't be any SEC teams left at that point; one will likely be in the title game, and the Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement pick and likely take another SEC team. Conferences can't have any more than two teams, so that eliminates Texas A&M. Oklahoma would be an interesting pick for a rematch with Kansas State, and I wouldn't normally think them to do that...but who is left? Clemson to Tempe? Rutgers? Oregon State would have three losses in this scenario so they're out, Texas would as well. This scenario probably won't happen but it's definitely feasible...that would be an interesting decision to make. If I had to guess, I'd probably say Oklahoma, but the Fiesta Bowl folks can't be liking that too much. They just can't expect Clemson to draw across the country, and you can say the same for Rutgers in light of the UConn experience a few years ago.
- I suppose you could make the argument for a two-loss Georgia (or maybe Florida) team in the Sugar Bowl instead of LSU. Georgia would have made the SEC title game and had a better in-conference record, but (1) LSU is the home-state team and (2) it's not like the Sugar Bowl has looked to find the best remaining teams to fill their slots in the past (see: Michigan, 12 months ago).
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 11
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Notre Dame maintains the top spot with a healthy 7 point edge over Ohio State. Alabama is third after last week's loss to Texas A&M, Oregon is fourth and Kansas State fifth.
At the bottom of the rankings, Massachusetts scored their first win of the season last week at Akron, pushing the Zips to the bottom of the rankings. Not deterred, New Mexico State trails Akron by only two points for the title of Gus' worst team in the land.
Conference rankings are as follows:
1. SEC: 13.07
2. Big 12: 9.20
3. Big 10: 6.92
4. Pac-12: 6.67
5. Big East: 0.13
6. ACC: -0.58
7. MAC: -6.83
8. WAC: -7.00
9. Sun Belt: -7.30
10: MWC: -8.20
11. C-USA: -14.50
At the bottom of the rankings, Massachusetts scored their first win of the season last week at Akron, pushing the Zips to the bottom of the rankings. Not deterred, New Mexico State trails Akron by only two points for the title of Gus' worst team in the land.
Conference rankings are as follows:
1. SEC: 13.07
2. Big 12: 9.20
3. Big 10: 6.92
4. Pac-12: 6.67
5. Big East: 0.13
6. ACC: -0.58
7. MAC: -6.83
8. WAC: -7.00
9. Sun Belt: -7.30
10: MWC: -8.20
11. C-USA: -14.50
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 10
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Notre Dame still holds the top spot after its narrow win over Pittsburgh last weekend. Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon and Kansas State round out the top 5.
On the bottom end, New Mexico State surged into the bottom position with their loss to 7-loss Auburn. The lead is not likely to last, however-- 2-loss San Jose State is on the schedule next week for NMSU while the eagerly awaited Akron/Massachusetts battle looms at InfoCision Field.
On the bottom end, New Mexico State surged into the bottom position with their loss to 7-loss Auburn. The lead is not likely to last, however-- 2-loss San Jose State is on the schedule next week for NMSU while the eagerly awaited Akron/Massachusetts battle looms at InfoCision Field.
Monday, October 29, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 9
This week's Gus Rankings are here. (And our apologies, but last week's rankings got lost in the shuffle of travel. You can find those here.)
Notre Dame finds itself alone at the top yet again, resting on a three point edge over second place Ohio State. Alabama is two points behind the Buckeyes in the third spot, which itself has a six point edge over co-No. 4's Kansas State and Oregon.
At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts holds a two point edge over Akron for the title of the worst team in America. November 10th can't come soon enough! Your faithful blogger is not above driving the two hours to witness the Game of the Century, either. Good seats still available!
Conference rankings are as follows, with the ACC becoming the first BCS conference (if my memory is correct) to capture a negative average team score in any week:
1. SEC: 7.929
2. Big 12: 7.000
3. Big 10: 5.417
4. Pac-12: 5.083
5. Big East: 0.250
6. ACC: -0.500
7. Sun Belt: -4.500
8. WAC: -4.857
9. MWC: -5.500
10. MAC: -5.583
11. C-USA: -9.833
Notre Dame finds itself alone at the top yet again, resting on a three point edge over second place Ohio State. Alabama is two points behind the Buckeyes in the third spot, which itself has a six point edge over co-No. 4's Kansas State and Oregon.
At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts holds a two point edge over Akron for the title of the worst team in America. November 10th can't come soon enough! Your faithful blogger is not above driving the two hours to witness the Game of the Century, either. Good seats still available!
Conference rankings are as follows, with the ACC becoming the first BCS conference (if my memory is correct) to capture a negative average team score in any week:
1. SEC: 7.929
2. Big 12: 7.000
3. Big 10: 5.417
4. Pac-12: 5.083
5. Big East: 0.250
6. ACC: -0.500
7. Sun Belt: -4.500
8. WAC: -4.857
9. MWC: -5.500
10. MAC: -5.583
11. C-USA: -9.833
Monday, October 15, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 7
This week's Gus Rankings are here. Notre Dame takes over the top spot for the first time in Gustory, followed by Ohio State, Florida, Alabama and Oregon State. On the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts catches Akron at the bottom of the list. New Mexico State is still in the hunt for the worst team but they are seeing some separation by the Minutemen and the Zips.
Another fun aspect of the Gus Rankings, as far as I'm concerned, is the ability to compare the best with the worst in an absolute sense; namely, is Notre Dame better than Akron and Massachusetts are bad? Last week, the bads held the edge, while Notre Dame reclaimed that title this week (+19 to -18). Stay tuned for this season's epic race away from 0.
One more fun note: Cincinnati has played 3 FBS teams through 7 weeks. Thanks for breaking a 5, Cincy! The same is true of Texas-San Antonio, though they'll get a pass for the time being as they're a FBS newcomer, and furthermore aren't in a BCS conference. That being said, Cincinnati still isn't the lowest rated zero-loss team-- that would be the Ohio Bobcats, checking in at #28.
Another fun aspect of the Gus Rankings, as far as I'm concerned, is the ability to compare the best with the worst in an absolute sense; namely, is Notre Dame better than Akron and Massachusetts are bad? Last week, the bads held the edge, while Notre Dame reclaimed that title this week (+19 to -18). Stay tuned for this season's epic race away from 0.
One more fun note: Cincinnati has played 3 FBS teams through 7 weeks. Thanks for breaking a 5, Cincy! The same is true of Texas-San Antonio, though they'll get a pass for the time being as they're a FBS newcomer, and furthermore aren't in a BCS conference. That being said, Cincinnati still isn't the lowest rated zero-loss team-- that would be the Ohio Bobcats, checking in at #28.
Monday, October 08, 2012
2012 Gus Rankings: Week 6
Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Ohio State takes over the top spot with the victory over Nebraska. Notre Dame, Florida, South Carolina and Stanford-- the highest ranked one-loss team-- round out the top 5. Notre Dame and Stanford play next week in South Bend, with the winner being well positioned to take the top spot.
At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts closed some of the gap between themselves and Akron. Akron still "leads" all FBS schools at -15, but Massachusetts is just one point back (ahead?). The title of the worst team in FBS football may well be decided on November 10 when the Minutemen visit Akron-- or perhaps on November 24, when Rice travels to UTEP.
Conference rankings through Week 6:
1. SEC: 3.643
2. Big 12: 3.500
3. Pac-12: 2.833
4. Big 10: 2.250
5. Big East: 0.500
6. ACC: 0.417
7. Sun Belt: -2.000
8. WAC: -2.286
9. MWC: -2.900
10. MAC: -3.167
11. C-USA: -4.333
At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts closed some of the gap between themselves and Akron. Akron still "leads" all FBS schools at -15, but Massachusetts is just one point back (ahead?). The title of the worst team in FBS football may well be decided on November 10 when the Minutemen visit Akron-- or perhaps on November 24, when Rice travels to UTEP.
Conference rankings through Week 6:
1. SEC: 3.643
2. Big 12: 3.500
3. Pac-12: 2.833
4. Big 10: 2.250
5. Big East: 0.500
6. ACC: 0.417
7. Sun Belt: -2.000
8. WAC: -2.286
9. MWC: -2.900
10. MAC: -3.167
11. C-USA: -4.333
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