Wednesday, December 12, 2012

2012 Gus Rankings: Bowl Edition

Want to know how Gus would perform in a bowl pick-em pool?  So do we.  Here's how he'd pick his winners and assign his confidence points.  (The final Gus Rankings are here, which incorporate last weekend's Army/Navy game.)  Confidence points are assigned in parenthesis by virtue of the difference in points in the Gus Rankings.  For games with the same difference in points, confidence points are then assigned by difference in ranking.  If that was the same, then the game with the higher ranked pair received more confidence (Gus is decidedly risk-preferring).  And Syracuse and West Virginia have the exact same record and the exact same number of Gus claimed his Mountaineer roots for the last confidence wager.

Addendum: By request, here are the final conference rankings:

1. SEC: 17.43
2. Big 12: 12.30
3. Big 10: 9.00
4. Pac-12: 8.25
5. Big East: 1.75
6. ACC: -3.25
7. MAC: -7.95
8. WAC: -8.43
9. MWC: -10.40
10. Sun Belt: -10.50
11. C-USA: -19.33

New Mexico

Nevada vs. Arizona Winner: Arizona (29)

Toledo vs. Utah State Winner: Utah State (9)

San Diego State vs. BYU Winner: San Diego State (26)
St. Petersburg

Ball State vs. UCF Winner: Ball State (18)
New Orleans

East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette (10)
Las Vegas

Boise State vs. Washington Winner: Boise State (21)

SMU vs. Fresno State Winner: Fresno State (33)
Little Caesars

Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan Winner: Western Kentucky (17)

San Jose State vs. Bowling Green Winner: San Jose State (32)

Duke vs. Cincinnati Winner: Cincinnati (30)

UCLA vs. Baylor Winner: UCLA (22)

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio Winner: Louisiana-Monroe (13)
Russell Athletic

Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers Winner: Rutgers (28)

Minnesota vs. Texas Tech Winner: Texas Tech (23)
Armed Forces

Rice vs. Air Force Winner: Air Force (8)
Fight Hunger

Arizona State vs. Navy Winner: Navy (24)

Syracuse vs. West Virginia Winner: West Virginia (1)

Texas vs. Oregon State Winner: Oregon State (15)
Buffalo Wild Wings

Michigan State vs. TCU Winner: Michigan State (11)
Music City

Vanderbilt vs. NC State Winner: Vanderbilt (19)

Georgia Tech vs. USC Winner: USC (27)

Iowa State vs. Tulsa Winner: Tulsa (31)

Clemson vs. LSU Winner: LSU (12)
Heart of Dallas

Purdue vs. Oklahoma State Winner: Oklahoma State (25)

Mississippi State vs. Northwestern Winner: Northwestern (14)
Capital One

Georgia vs. Nebraska Winner: Nebraska (7)

South Carolina vs. Michigan Winner: South Carolina (16)

Wisconsin vs. Stanford Winner: Stanford (35)

Northern Illinois vs. Florida State Winner: Northern Illinois (2)

Florida vs. Louisville Winner: Florida (34)

Oregon vs. Kansas State Winner: Oregon (3)

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma Winner: Oklahoma (5)

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi Winner: Pittsburgh (4)

Kent State vs. Arkansas State Winner: Kent State (6)
BCS Championship

Notre Dame vs. Alabama Winner: Notre Dame (20)       

Monday, December 03, 2012

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 14

Here are the final Gus Rankings of the year.  (Army plays Navy next week but that should have no bearing on either end of the rankings.)  Notre Dame maintains a stranglehold on the top spot.  Stanford, Florida, Ohio State and Alabama round out the top 5.  Notre Dame claims the Gus National Title easily with a win over Alabama in the National Championship Game, though also has a fair chance to claim the GNT even with a loss to Alabama depending on how the remaining bowl games shake out.  A Florida win over Louisville presents the strongest threat to Notre Dame's top spot.  We shall see how it all shakes out!

On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico State claims their own national title-- Gus' Worst Team in America.  New Mexico State edged out Southern Mississippi over the last weekend; perennial favorites Akron and Massachusetts finished just behind the Aggies.

As these are the final Gus Rankings, Gus would have the BCS as follows:

National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champions)
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big 10 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. San Jose State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Louisville (Big East champion)

The National Title Game features the top two teams, Notre Dame and Stanford (technically, Stanford and Florida are tied-- if you put Florida in the title game, simply swap Florida for Stanford).  As Stanford is the Pac-12 winner, the Rose Bowl gets first choice in replacing them and the highest remaining team is Florida.  They would face Wisconsin, automatic qualifiers from the Big 10.

The Fiesta Bowl gets the next choice of teams.  Kansas State, champions of the Big 12, automatically qualify.  The next highest remaining eligible team is Oregon at #6.  Alabama automatically makes the Sugar Bowl as SEC champions; the Sugar Bowl is left to choose between two other automatic qualifiers-- Louisville as Big East champions, and...San Jose State!  (Gus overlooked the Spartans last week on the incorrect assumption that a non-BCS-conference automatic qualifier needed to be a conference champion.  No such requirement exists.)  Everyone knows Northern Illinois' story by now, and they do finish at #16 in the final Gus Rankings...but San Jose State outpaces them at #14, and both teams are well ahead of Big 10 champion Wisconsin (#37) and Big East champion Louisville (#29).  SJSU, as the highest remaining eligible team, heads to the Sugar Bowl.  That leaves the Orange Bowl with Florida State (ACC champions) and Louisville.

Next week, we'll update the rankings to capture Army/Navy and pick the winners of every bowl game.