Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Super Bowl Props: Year 3

It's time for this year's Super Bowl prop-a-thon! TPS stalwart Rob Holub sends along this year's props. Here's last year's post and here's the year before. Rob issued me a sound beating last year, so I need a better performance. Feel free to add in your choices and see how you do!

For the uninitiated, props are bets on certain outcomes within the game. Extremely popular games-- like national championships in college sports and title games/series in professional sport-- tend to have some listing of prop bets, though in the vast majority of games you can usually wager only on the winner and an over/under for total points scored. As always, bets are for recreational purposes only.

One final thing-- to avoid the four-corners effect, it makes a little more sense to pick props that are priced at roughly 50% (or below, if you so choose). You don't quite get the same effect from taking the "no" on the two point conversation (paying a meager -600) as you do from taking the over/under jersey number bet (generally priced at the even -115/-115 spread, and an annual Holub lead-pipe lock).

Onwards! Here are my picks:

- Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes. (+100)

- Total Number of Different Players to Have a Pass Attempt: 2.5 (2-pt conversions do not count). Over. (+240)

- Saints: Will they convert a 4th down attempt? Yes. (+125)

- Robert Meachem, Total Receiving Yards on 1st reception: 10.5. Over. (-115)

- Peyton Manning, Will Have More Passing Yards in Which Half? Second. (-105)

You got nothing on those, Holub! I also like how four of my five prop bets could conceivably be satisfied on one play.

Again, feel free to play along in the comments.


rolub said...

As much as I wanted to take the Jersey prop again, my sole purpose for commenting on TPS is to defeat Matt in the annual Propapalooza. So while I'm not picking it, I'd lean towards the over, thanks to having the main Colts weapons (Wayne, Clark, Garcon, and Addai), with the added bonus of Donald Brown, Lynell Hamilton, and Saints TEs Thomas and Shockey. But there's 5 more I like better:

Total number of different Saints to score (includes kickers): OVER 3.5 (-115)

Drew Brees: Will he throw a 4thQ TD pass? YES (-105)

Lynell Hamilton: Total Rush/Receiving Yards: UNDER 12.5 (-115)

Austin Collie Total Receiving Yards: OVER 50.5 (-115)

Kobe Bryant Points/Lebron James Points (on 2/6/2010) -2.5 (-115) vs. Colts/Saints Points

I think the over/unders are great plays, while I just have to believe the Saints are throwing in the 4th Q, whether they're up or down. The cross-sport prop is a bit risky, but the scoring averages put it slightly above the game's total, and Lebron has the Knicks coming to town.

I would have liked to play the Garcon over 58.5 yards as well, but didn't want to put too many eggs in one basket. I think Wayne will have the same trouble against Greer that he did against Revis, so Garcon, Clark, and Collie should all get their targets, while the Garcon/Collie prop numbers seem more attractive.

rolub said...

Sportsbook has added some "Novelty Props" that are not on the linked pdf:

How Long will it take Carrie Underwood to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung)
1 Minute and 42 Seconds +120
Under 1 Minute and 42 Seconds -150

Time on the Game Clock When the Winning Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on Head Coach:
Over 45 Seconds left in 4th Quarter -150
Under 45 Seconds left in 4th Quarter +120

Reggie Wayne - Will he make a one-handed reception in Super Bowl XLIV (No Reception=No Action)
Yes +250
No -400

Marques Colston - Will he make a one-handed reception in Super Bowl XLIV (No Reception=No Action)
Yes +250
No -400

Will the MVP of Super Bowl XLIV be a Quarter Back
Yes -500
No +300

How Many Times will CBS show Kim Kardashian on TV during the Game:
Over 2.5 (-115)
Under 2.5 (-115)

Will Kim Kardashian Be Shown Wearing a Saints Shirt or Jersey During Super Bowl XLIV
Yes +160
No -200

Super Bowl XLIV - Who Will Have More (Kim Kardashian Measurements 34-26-39)

Kim Kardashian Measurements (34-26-39) -38.5 (-115)
Reggie Bush (Saints) Total Rushing+Receiving Yards +38.5 (-115)

Will Pete Townshend Smash a Guitar on Stage During the Half Time Show
Yes +160
No -200

How Many Times will Pete Townshend do his Legendary Windmill Move, Total Windmills
Over 5.5 (-200)
Under 5.5 (+160)

rolub said...

i'm petitioning that i can substitute the over in the jersey prop for the Lebron/Kobe point total, seeing as Sportsbook will likely cancel the wagers due to Kobe not playing. Pretty disappointed after Lebron went for 47.

rolub said...

Matt, while I commend you for have the gusto to take some plus-money, underdog props, I have to yet again claim the Propapalooza title with another 5-0 perfect showing.

If only you could win real money doing this!