Russ Roberts and I Now Have This In Common

Accusations of socialism in the online comments of his "speech":
We could start a club.

All Time Box Office Adjusted for Ticket Inflation

Interesting series of data on box office grosses from BoxOfficeMojo:
The list continues to 100 at the link.

The Economy is Like Teen Sex

This column by Judith Warner about the "Myth of Lost Innocence" in many ways sounds like a metaphor for the U.S. economy. A nugget:

In each of these examples, real problems – that some girls are engaging in too-young, risky and degrading sex, that some children are being stressed excessively and stifled by nonstop structure, that some boys (poor and minority boys) are doing badly in school, that some children are getting really reckless mental health services – are grossly simplified and, via the magical thinking of dogma and ideology, are elevated to the level of myth. Real complexities and nuances – details concerning exactly which children are suffering, flailing or failing, and in what numbers, and how and why, and what we can do about it – are lost.

Worth reading for the metaphors and some of the interesting statistics and trends.

The Least Disappointing News I Read Yesterday

With respect to the expansion of government intervention in the economy:

In response to the publishing world's troubles, historian and best-selling author Douglas Brinkley has floated what may be the most improbable bailout yet: a federal subsidy for book reviews. Brinkley told the Times, "Like public television, I think book review sections almost need to get subsidized to keep the intellectual life in America alive. … So if we can do that for radio and we could do it for television, why can't we do it for the book industry, which is suffering terribly right now?"

Since this seems only "improbable," it makes it the least disappointing thing I read yesterday. Yesterday was a very bad day, even small measures of consolation are disappearing.

Not to mention this, this, and this: Image is everything, actual results are nothing.

Good summary of economic situation

It's a challenge to find a concise summary of what's going on; this isn't a bad one. Ignore the (insert adjective here) quote at the end and add in that it was the federal government crowding out private banks from the non-subprime market, not the general "eagerness" of "some banks."

Ceteris paribus, is anyone "eager" in any industry to deal with customers that are credit risks?

What I'm listening to today...

Nothing but Soundgarden, in chronological order of major release. All three are very complete and deceptively wide-ranging; Badmotorfinger is underrated and Down on the Upside gets too much attention. Of the bands most people have heard of from the early-to-mid 1990s, is there a more under-appreciated group? Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Alice in Chains and the Smashing Pumpkins all get more respect; from top to bottom, all inclusive, I'd say only Alice in Chains (and perhaps Nirvana) could rival Soundgarden's ability to put out LPs full of solid songs. (Album-making, as separate from albums full of good songs, was never a strength of alternative music.)

If you're on iTunes, pick up the pair of "Songs from the Superunknown," and don't forget "Birth Ritual" from the Singles soundtrack either.

Dana, where does Soundgarden fit in your musical hierarchy?

Addendum: From Badmotorfinger, enjoy especially the second half of the album; the rolling "Searching with My Good Eye Closed," the saxophone (in grunge music?!) highlighted "Room A Thousand Years Wide" and the calculated "Mind Riot". "Holy Water" is a look ahead to Superunknown.

From Superunknown, focus also on the rear half of the album-- "The Day I Tried To Live," "Fresh Tendrils," "4th of July" and "Like Suicide" are all top notch songs that trend away from the mid-90s radio friendly.

Down on the Upside is my least favorite, personally, but still shines in areas. I do think the radio-friendly tracks from this one are the best, especially "Blow Up The Outside World," though Thayil's at his best in "Tighter & Tighter" and "Overfloater" is subtle enough to enjoy three or four times in a row.

Feldstein: The $800 Billion Mistake

In the Washington Post:

As a conservative economist, I might be expected to oppose a stimulus plan. In fact, on this page in October, I declared my support for a stimulus. But the fiscal package now before Congress needs to be thoroughly revised. In its current form, it does too little to raise national spending and employment. It would be better for the Senate to delay legislation for a month, or even two, if that's what it takes to produce a much better bill. We cannot afford an $800 billion mistake.

For tax cuts, he goes on to point out that the currently proposed lump sum and temporary payments to households and businesses have little effect on economic output. However, his most pointed critiques are on the spending side:

On the spending side, the stimulus package is full of well-intended items that, unfortunately, are not likely to do much for employment. Computerizing the medical records of every American over the next five years is desirable, but it is not a cost-effective way to create jobs. Has anyone gone through the (long) list of proposed appropriations and asked how many jobs each would create per dollar of increased national debt?

The largest proposed outlays amount to just writing unrestricted checks to state governments. [...] Will these vast sums actually lead to additional spending, or will they merely finance state transfer payments or relieve state governments of the need for temporary tax hikes or bond issues?

The plan to finance health insurance premiums for the unemployed would actually increase unemployment by giving employers an incentive to lay off workers rather than pay health premiums during a time of weak demand. And this supposedly two-year program would create a precedent that could be hard to reverse.

A large fraction of the stimulus proposal is devoted to infrastructure projects that will spend out very slowly, not with the speed needed to help the economy in 2009 and 2010. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that less than one-fifth of the $50 billion of proposed spending on energy and water would occur by the end of 2010.

If rapid spending on things that need to be done is a criterion of choice, the plan should include higher defense outlays, including replacing and repairing supplies and equipment, needed after five years of fighting. The military can increase its level of procurement very rapidly. Yet the proposed spending plan includes less than $5 billion for defense, only about one-half of 1 percent of the total package.

[...]

All new spending and tax changes should have explicit time limits that prevent ever-increasing additions to the national debt. Similarly, spending programs should not create political dynamics that will make them hard to end.

The problem with the current stimulus plan is not that it is too big but that it delivers too little extra employment and income for such a large fiscal deficit. It is worth taking the time to get it right.

Does anyone else find it bizarre that critics of those wanting to at least delay the stimulus package often retort that "if we wait, the recession will be over by the time it passes." I hardly see this as a reason to pass a gigantic stimulus plan with difficult long-run ramifications when the end is already in sight without the stimulus plan. It sounds more like a political opportunist argument, using the recession to justify big spending plans that otherwise would not succeed on their own merit.

Can We Get A Little Grade Inflation Here?

Some Fairfax, VA parents want their kids cut a little slack:

To the grade-grubbers go the spoils. And the grade-grubbers in this case are rabble-rousing parents in Virginia's Fairfax County. Residents of the high-powered Washington suburb have been battling the district's tough grading practices; chief among their complaints is that scoring a 93 gets recorded as a lowly B+. After forming an official protest group last year called Fairgrade and goading the school board into voting on whether to ease the standards, parents marshaled 10,000 signatures online and nearly 500 in-person supporters to help plead their case on Jan. 22. After two hours of debate, the resolution passed, a move critics consider a defeat in the war on grade inflation.

What amazes me here is the pointlessness of this debate. Wherever you determine the numerical cut-offs from one grade to the next, the teachers doing the grading and writing the questions are well aware of it and accommodate. The culture of academic standards at the school is far more important than the printed numbers on the syllabus.

FWIW, here is Landsburg on fighting grade inflation.

Adding to the Public Knowledge Stock

My doctoral public finance course is pretty standard in design, but has a small tweak I think should become more commonplace in a doctoral level field course:

Opinion Letter/Media Communication: It is important that we, as academics specializing in complicated and technical material, find a way to convey our knowledge to the public. At some point before this class ends, you must write a opinion piece based on class discussion that is relevant to the course topic. This essay should be between 300 and 500 words single-spaced, and written at the high school level. You should submit it to me with a suggestion of an appropriate media outlet for publication (ex: Forbes Magazine, Indianapolis Star, Indiana Business Journal, etc.).

I think the syllabus sharing that has occurred this semester is another way in which blogs have improved the discipline. Much more interesting syllabi can be found here, here, and here.

Heavy Hitters

OpenSecrets.org provides us with the top 101 All-Time Donors in American Politics from 1989 to 2008:


The most interesting ones to me are the NAR at #3 and AT&T at #1, as nobody else is particularly surprising. Notice that both split between the two parties pretty evenly. I can't help but wonder how NAR's lobbying efforts relates to the housing bubble (Freddie Mac weighs in at #75 on the party fence). I assume AT&T was still recoiling from the Bell System Break up in 1984.

Hat-Tip: Jason Oberle, who passes along the data in a spreadsheet.

The Bee Watcher Watchers

Find them here.

Hat Tip: Russ Roberts

If you don't get the title, you can find the text here. Alternative title was "The Keynesian Multiplier."

What to do with failing banks?

Stiglitz chimes in on CNN; he's says nationalize them, restructure the incentives, and look to Sweden as an example. I can't find it right now, but I read recently (I think it was via Marginal Revolution) that Sweden barely did anything with regards to their banking system and nationalization in the early 1990s. And with regards to government involvement improving incentives...well, that's a tough one to buy.

Education Round-Up

Interesting tidbits from the Indianapolis Star that I think are relevant to state education policy in general.

First, on cursive handwriting:

Learning to write in script is a time-honored tradition. But in today's time-starved classrooms, some around the country are questioning whether, given everything else vying for space in the curriculum and the increasing use of technology, teaching these children cursive is even necessary.
...
Lisa Jones, who teaches third grade at Edgelea Elementary, said she's noticed that consequence of the de-emphasis, not just by schools but by society: "The most difficult part for me is that now they can't read it, because they don't see it anywhere."

The article is pretty neutral in its coverage, but I see little reason for concern. Why do we have cursive writing in the first place? My guess (and is only a guess) is that cursive was more efficient in a handwriting heavy society because it required fewer lifts of the pen from the paper. Cursive writing is more difficult to read because many people develop different styles. Since most communication takes place in type print on the margin our time is better left to learning technology, science, and reading. Rather than being concerned that some people might not be able to read cursive, we should probably just expect others to drop cursive and leave their notes in print.

Next, on noncriminal teacher discipline:

Trina Moore lost her Greenfield teaching job in 2007 after she forged such a close friendship with one middle-schooler that they talked on the phone for 11 hours one day in June, even though the girl's mother had asked them to stop.

By all accounts, the relationship wasn't sexual, but e-mails and instant messages show that the 39-year-old and the seventh-grader had a cozy relationship. The girl's mother told the school they talked about being drunk and gossiped about students' sex lives, according to the principal's report on the conversation.

[...]

If Indiana's laws mirrored those elsewhere, the state would have known the district warned Moore in 1992 and again in 2002 against close friendships with students outside school. Her principal wrote that Moore lied to him about one relationship. Two parents sought restraining orders against Moore.

Even after Moore was fired, no one was required to tell the Indiana Department of Education about her case, and no one did. No action has been taken on her license, and she remains free to seek teaching jobs, although the state does not have a current teaching assignment on record for her.

In Indiana, school districts are required to report such information to the state only if a teacher is convicted of a serious crime. Some districts fear they could open themselves to lawsuits by sharing any other information about problem teachers, and others simply wish to keep embarrassing cases quiet.

The issue of personal privacy versus disclosure of information is certainly a interesting topic for discussion. Reputation is something that makes a lot of markets function well that otherwise would not. I don't have a suggestion here, but as a devil's advocate I would ask: If a teacher were to get a DUI, should parents of their students be informed? Should they be fired? Why teachers and not, say, safety inspectors, building architects, or mayors?

Normally the consumer would ultimately decide how these questions get answered, but the question is much more difficult in the public sector. Voters demand Angels because it is free for them to do so.

Super Bowl Props

TPS sportsbook consultant Rob Holub sends along this year's Super Bowl Props - 16 pages of them. During particularly large sporting events, props emerge that allow you to bet on just about any aspect of the game. I believe these happen in the Final Four and World Series as well, but none to the extent of the Super Bowl. We posted about this last year. Feel free to add in your five guesses and out-do me. All wagers are for recreational purposes, of course.

For what it's worth, I went 2-2 on the over/unders and was right about the interception/TD/Manning wager, so I'd have been slightly up.

Here's what I like:

- Steelers total points: 27, under
- Longest made FG of game: 44.5, over
- Total Interceptions thrown by both teams: 2.5, over
- Kurt Warner, longest completion: 39.5, over
- Larry Fitzgerald, total receptions: 6.5, over

Buena suerte!

Sentences I found humorous...

From CNN's bit on Tokyo's companies encouraging their employees to have more kids:

In addition, Japan's population is aging at a faster pace than any other country in the world.

Yes, they're (likely) talking about the average age for the population as a whole, and that's a function of the fact that, as the article pointed out, no one's having kids. Still, I got a kick out of the fact that the line could be construed as to say that one year in America is worth 2 or 3 in Japan. If it said "aging faster," I don't think it'd have been as funny-- something about "faster pace," like years go by faster in the Orient.

Fittest and Fattest Cities

Men's Fitness clocks in on the 25 fittest and fattest cities; here's the article and here's the map. You can mouse over most of the stars on the map. Colorado Springs takes the cake for the fittest; at the other end of the spectrum, Las Vegas takes it for the second year in a row. 6 of the 10 fattest are from Texas. 7 of the 10 fittest are in the Mountain time zone or westward.

My Definition of Creepiness in One Picture

I took this picture at Krogers, but later I saw the same book in the childrens section of Barnes-n-Noble. I'd expect to see this kind of sycophantic hero worship of the nation's political leader in some authoritarian country, but not here. I haven't been this disturbed since the passage of the Patriot Act, politicians are not meant to be worshiped this way.

What I've been reading

Here's what's on the nightstand:

- The Road to Serfdom, by Friedrich von Hayek. The well known book, we're doing this in our reading group here and this is actually my first read. We're only the introduction and three chapters in, but thus far, I was a bit taken aback by the warning of heading down the same (economic freedom) path as Germany and Russia...yet he calls for certain government interventions that support competition. Odd. Emily replied a little while back about the aims of RtoS, and I'm hoping the discussion goes towards the political and economic freedom realm.

- The Origins of Virtue, by Matt Ridley. I'm almost done with this one; it was recommended to me by an undergraduate here at WVU. Surprising to me that the Folk Theorem was never mentioned by name throughout, though that's basically what's described. It's a view of biology and anthropology through economics glasses; we're nice to people when (strict self-interested economics says) we shouldn't be because we're hard-wired to be nice, since that wins out in the cooperative long run. I found the biology examples most interesting, vampire bats, sticklebacks and the like. Recommended.

- The Baseball Economist, by J.C. Bradbury. The title on the cover says "The next step in the Bill James Revolution"; James' writing always hit me a little bit better than this did. (Part of that could be because even though James is a stat-hound, he's a deceptively good writer.) I enjoyed the attempts to isolate and rank baseball eras and the effectiveness of Leo Mazzone; less so the big market vs. small market teams and evolution of baseball talent (as separate from the ranking of eras). The steriods chapter seems out of place. It's baseball and economics, so I'm going to like it, but maybe also expect too much at the same time?

I just cracked Baseball and Philosophy, so not too much to say about that yet. I've decided as a New Year's resolution that I need to read decidedly more. I also like baseball, so I'm going to read more about that as it pertains to other areas. (Thus the previous two books.) The White Man's Burden just came in the mail; that should be a quick read and (hopefully) chock full of the same types of examples that made The Elusive Quest for Growth so great to cite. I'm curious to see how his take on development has evolved between the two. The Theory of Moral Sentiments just came as well; it was mentioned in the Origins of Virtue at a number of points and I've never taken a gander at that either. A little while back, Tom and Dana let me borrow Slash; I should get into that as well.

Questions Answered

Dubner writes:

But still, I smell a case for the American Humanist Association or some atheists’ rights group. The A.H.A. and others recently tried — and failed — to have the phrase “So help me God” removed from the presidential oath of office. Maybe it’s time for them to tackle the N.F.L. Why is it O.K. to praise the Lord but not, say, make a snow angel? If the atheists can’t gain any traction in the N.F.L., maybe they can take on Tim Tebow with his “John 3:16″ eyeblack patches.

Because the NFL players are part of a private enterprise, while government officials are not, that is why.

Now if they were posting the 10 commandments on a taxpayer subsidized stadium, then I'd be willing to hear the arguments.

If It Keeps Them Occupied: Part 2

I presume Matt is happy, as am I for the same reasons, that ESPN is reporting the following:

WASHINGTON -- A handful of lawmakers used a resolution commending the University of Florida's national football championship Thursday to protest college football's much-maligned BCS system.

A dozen House members voted "no" or "present" on the resolution, the latest signal from the nation's capital that many people aren't happy about the way the NCAA chooses its football champion. Many of the dissenters were from Utah and Texas, both of which have schools that made a case to play for this year's national championship but were passed over.

Perhaps the Gus Rankings are in order?