Thursday, October 02, 2008

A Free Lunch on the First Day

Intrade Beta Contract: "United States GDP in Q3 2008 will be positive"

Intrade Probability: 69%

Actual Probability: 100%

Explanation: GDP is always positive. GDP growth on the other hand...

Note: Their contract at the real Intrade website correctly states what this is supposed to mean, growth from the preceding quarter.

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