Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Propapalooza IV

Yes, it's time for this year's Super Bowl prop battle. See Propapaloozas I, II, and III for more information.

Here are this year's props, all 22 pages of them. Props are bets not directly concerned with the outcome of the game itself-- basically anything beyond "Team X will win" or "Team X will win by Z points." Every year, TPS stalwart Rob Holub goes toe to toe with yours truly and every year, realizes he's vastly over matched. Ok, that's not exactly true, but I'm feeling good about capturing my first victory this year.

The contest: Pick 5 props that are priced at roughly even money, i.e., anything in the -120 range and above. Most number right takes Propapalooza IV.

Feel free to add your own in the comments and join in the fun!

Some favorites:

What color will the Gatorade by that is dumped on the head coach of the winning team? Lime Green (11-2), Yellow (5-6), Orange (5-1), Red (12-1), Blue (12-1), Clear/Water (3-2). I think Orange has good value there. What if it's Powerade?

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the game thank first? God (1-1), Family (4-1), Teammates (2-1), Coach (9-1), Does not thank anyone (3-1). I think God is mispriced here; that trend seems to have fallen off a bit. I see it like this-- odds on favorites to win the MVP are QBs, and they generally thank the teammates first, though I still don't feel that 2-1 is paying off well enough.

How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note BRAVE at the end of the Star Spangled Banner? Over/Under 6 seconds. Isn't the general trend to belt out "Free" and then finish with a crisp "Brave?" I'm going under.

How many times will FOX mention Brett Favre on TV during the Game (Live commentary only/anything taped does not count): Over/under 2.5. Boy that's low, but what counts as the live commentary only? What about halftime? You gotta figure once when Rodgers starts playing, mentioning how he succeeded Brett Favre, and then as the game goes along if he's nearing any Super Bowl team passing records-- I think the over is the sound bet but watch the technicalities.

Who will Barack Obama pick to win Super Bowl XLV? Steelers (-140) vs. Packers (+100). Pennsylvania has twice the electoral votes that Wisconsin does. Further, Obama won Wisconsin by almost 14% yet won Pennsylvania by about 10%. Pennsylvania is traditionally viewed being being "more battleground," though recent presidential elections have been closer in Wisconsin (2000 and 2004, thought not 2008). I think the Steelers are the good bet here, though they are slight favorites.

If Barack Obama picks a team to win Super Bowl XLV, will the President's pick be correct? Yes (-115) vs. No (-125). Independent of the political factors above-- and this line reflects that-- it's humorous to see a line that says the President is more likely to pick the wrong team to win the game...and he hasn't picked a team yet.

My selections:

Total Net Yards by both teams: 666.5, Over -115

Most Receiving Yards: Mike Wallace (+15.5) v. Greg Jennings, -115

Packers - Total Rushing Yards: 78.5, Under -115

Heath Miller - Total Receptions: 3.5, Over -135

Heath Miller - Will he score a touchdown? Yes +200

The Miller total receptions bet is a bit above the -120 cutoff, so I'll offset that with the Miller touchdown bet.


rolub said...

The Champ is here.

In respect of Propapalooza, I've made my selections based on the PDF odds and passed on capitalizing on the time value of Tuesday's PDF.

My picks:
Team to receive opening kickoff: Green Bay (-105)
Heath Miller receptions: Over 3.5 (+105)
Most Rushing Yards: Roethlisberger +7.5 (-115) vs. Rodgers
Receiving Yards: Heath Miller -19.5 (-115) vs. Andrew Quarless
Which is more? Packers Net Yards +40.5 (-115) vs. Big10 Hoops points on 2/6/11 (PSU/Mich/MSU/Wisc/OSU/Minn)

also, for those inclined, the tremendous blog VegasWatch lets you know that there's great value in taking the under on Christina Aguilera's anthem at this particular sportsbook.

rolub said...

Those odds on Heath Miller's reception total are wrong; should be -135, and since Ryan is already on it (upon further review), I'm cutting that one out.

Replacing with James Jones' longest reception: Over 15.5 yards (-115)

Matt E. Ryan said...

A workman's-like effort, Rob. I just wanted it more.