Friday, August 29, 2008

Prediction Market Analysis: The Response to the Palin Pick

So how did the prediction markets react to the announcement of Palin to the Republican Ticket? Was it really a maverick and unexpected move? Will it help or hurt McCain's chances? Here it is:
  1. According to Intrade, Palin really was an unlikely pick. She was barely worth watching prior to the announcement, so a few lucky betters are cashing out a pretty good day having watched their shares rise in value 93.8 points.
  2. It seems unlikely that it has made a difference to the outcome of the presidential election. Both IEM and Intrade report a 1 point decrease in the probability that the Republican candidate will win the presidential election. Both markets report a 40% chance of a Republican win in November, which doesn't look good for hopes of gridlock.
Of course, nobody can say for sure why price did or did not move in #2, but it seems like a safe inference that the new pick did not matter much.

5 comments:

brenda said...

HA! I think she is fabulous !!!

Listening to her talk, really inspired me

Anonymous said...

Pro Life, Doesn't that mean ALL Life? How can you be Pro Life but still believe in War and the Death Penalty? Isn't that a contradiction of terms? I understand being Anti-Abortion but if you're Pro Life you should be Pro ALL Life. I don't think there is more that 2% of the total population that is TRULY Pro Life, meaning that you believe that life is completely sacred. Don't be an idiot and say you're Pro Life when what you really mean is that you you are Pro Life until people are born and then you don't care about them any more.

Anonymous said...

I think McSain made a poor choice selection Palin. First no one knows her. Therefore it appears that he is pandering to Hillary supporters which is insulting--it infers that these women are so stupid that the only thing they are interested in is getting a woman elected simply because she is a woman. No John we want someone who is qualified and that is not Palin. Do not play us cheap-we are intelligent and will not fall for this!

Besides I heard she is under investigation and that she had five kids--one with down syndrome.

Now honestly what type of mother would seek the vice presidency and be have a child with special needs (e.g. need mother more than most kids)? The democrats should be dancing in the street because as a woman this is pandering at it's best!

Anonymous said...

Palin has more executive experience than all the other three president/VP candidates combined. Obama, Biden, and McCain, none of the three has ever held any mayoralship or governorship, where the public budget of any geographical entity has to be run. Palin on the other hand is the Governor with the highest approval rating among all 50 states.

Frankly, McCain should give the top of his ticket to Palin, and ask nicely to be her VP! LOL.

Intrade numbers were probably handicapped by Palin's prior pregnancy (was in April or May baby delivery?) So the betters wrote her off. It's inspiring to see that a thoroughly post-modern professional woman can have a successful career and a family!

Yes, the baby has Downs syndrone. In a twisted way, it actually frees up the concern that the kid might become a celebrity baby from birth and never grow up properly. The fact that the baby may not be able to comprehend that his mom is one heart beat from, or mostly likely in the next election cycle will become, the most powerful person in the world is probably a blessing in disguise.

Anonymous said...

Hey, just want to say hi. I'm new here.