- According to Intrade, Palin really was an unlikely pick. She was barely worth watching prior to the announcement, so a few lucky betters are cashing out a pretty good day having watched their shares rise in value 93.8 points.
- It seems unlikely that it has made a difference to the outcome of the presidential election. Both IEM and Intrade report a 1 point decrease in the probability that the Republican candidate will win the presidential election. Both markets report a 40% chance of a Republican win in November, which doesn't look good for hopes of gridlock.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Prediction Market Analysis: The Response to the Palin Pick
So how did the prediction markets react to the announcement of Palin to the Republican Ticket? Was it really a maverick and unexpected move? Will it help or hurt McCain's chances? Here it is: