Been slow on the blogging with the start of the new semester. Here is some of what I've been doing in my real job:
"Is There Crowd Wisdom in the Judgment of Experts? Evidence from College Football Rankings"
My work on college football poll bias with Sarah Larson and Chad Wall. I blogged the abstract before, but the paper is now online for the first time.
"Robustness and Vulnerability of Community Irrigation Systems: The Case of the Taos Valley Acequias."
A paper grounded in the Bloomington School of Public Choice tradition by Michael E. Cox and I, as we study the complicated issue of property rights to water.
Comments are welcome, and contact information is on the title page if you have any you'd like to share.
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12 comments:
Justin,
I just looked at your paper real quickly, but could your results be interpreted to say that if both teams are ranked the underdog usually wins? If not, what does your paper say concerning two ranked teams?
It says that if both teams are ranked, the poll is less likely to predict the winner than when only one team is ranked. So it is not necessarily that the underdog usually wins, but that they win more often when they are also ranked.
Thanks! It looks interesting. Especially the bias against SEC teams.
It seems that the necessary assumption for the college football bias paper is that the AP "should" predict winners.
I don't think that this is the case, except perhaps very early in the season.
The polls are supposed to be based on what teams have done, not what they could do. I can perceive a situation where I would rank team A ahead of team B even if I believe team B would beat team A.
Anonymous, I appreciate the comment:
Some voters might behave that way, though it does not seem in line with the instructions the AP poll gives.
I have more reasons to think that the poll "should" predict winner's, but suppose it does not.
In the regressions used, the expectation would be that such behavior should only influence the intercept size of the regression(s), as a higher poll ranking would be less likely to predict the winner. It should not be a source of systematic error correlated with other factors like time zone, journalism school quality, or conference.
It is that systematic error that is the focus of the paper.
Best,
JR
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