2012 Gus Rankings: Week 9

This week's Gus Rankings are here.  (And our apologies, but last week's rankings got lost in the shuffle of travel.  You can find those here.)

Notre Dame finds itself alone at the top yet again, resting on a three point edge over second place Ohio State.  Alabama is two points behind the Buckeyes in the third spot, which itself has a six point edge over co-No. 4's Kansas State and Oregon.

At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts holds a two point edge over Akron for the title of the worst team in America.  November 10th can't come soon enough!  Your faithful blogger is not above driving the two hours to witness the Game of the Century, either.  Good seats still available!

Conference rankings are as follows, with the ACC becoming the first BCS conference (if my memory is correct) to capture a negative average team score in any week:

1. SEC: 7.929
2. Big 12: 7.000
3. Big 10: 5.417
4. Pac-12: 5.083
5. Big East: 0.250
6. ACC: -0.500
7. Sun Belt: -4.500
8. WAC: -4.857
9. MWC: -5.500
10. MAC: -5.583
11. C-USA: -9.833

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 7

This week's Gus Rankings are here.  Notre Dame takes over the top spot for the first time in Gustory, followed by Ohio State, Florida, Alabama and Oregon State.  On the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts catches Akron at the bottom of the list.  New Mexico State is still in the hunt for the worst team but they are seeing some separation by the Minutemen and the Zips.

Another fun aspect of the Gus Rankings, as far as I'm concerned, is the ability to compare the best with the worst in an absolute sense; namely, is Notre Dame better than Akron and Massachusetts are bad?  Last week, the bads held the edge, while Notre Dame reclaimed that title this week (+19 to -18).  Stay tuned for this season's epic race away from 0.

One more fun note: Cincinnati has played 3 FBS teams through 7 weeks.  Thanks for breaking a 5, Cincy!  The same is true of Texas-San Antonio, though they'll get a pass for the time being as they're a FBS newcomer, and furthermore aren't in a BCS conference.  That being said, Cincinnati still isn't the lowest rated zero-loss team-- that would be the Ohio Bobcats, checking in at #28.

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 6

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Ohio State takes over the top spot with the victory over Nebraska.  Notre Dame, Florida, South Carolina and Stanford-- the highest ranked one-loss team-- round out the top 5.  Notre Dame and Stanford play next week in South Bend, with the winner being well positioned to take the top spot.

At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts closed some of the gap between themselves and Akron.  Akron still "leads" all FBS schools at -15, but Massachusetts is just one point back (ahead?).  The title of the worst team in FBS football may well be decided on November 10 when the Minutemen visit Akron-- or perhaps on November 24, when Rice travels to UTEP.

Conference rankings through Week 6:

1. SEC: 3.643
2. Big 12: 3.500
3. Pac-12: 2.833
4. Big 10: 2.250
5. Big East: 0.500
6. ACC: 0.417
7. Sun Belt: -2.000
8. WAC: -2.286
9. MWC: -2.900
10. MAC: -3.167
11. C-USA: -4.333

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 5

This week's rankings are here.  Oregon State shares the point lead with Stanford though claims the top spot by virtue of a better record.  Alabama and Ohio State are tied for the third spot, and Notre Dame rounds out the top five.  On the other end of the rankings, Akron stakes themselves to a two point advantage for the final spot.

At this point it's fun to see a visual disconnect from records and point totals...a few examples:

Highest point total for a team with no wins?  Vanderbilt finds itself at 0-3 against FCS competition but at an even 0 points due to the fact that their three losses-- Georgia, South Carolina and Northwestern-- are all undefeated.  Northern Illinois, USC, Nevada, Penn State and Connecticut all have three wins and are below the Commodores in the standings.

Lowest point total for a team with no losses?  FCS newcomers Texas-San Antonio also find themselves at 0 points despite winning both of their games against FCS competition (and all three of their games against non-FCS competition as well-- one more win the rest of the way and the Roadrunners finish .500 or better in their first year at Division I's top level.) 1-4 Kentucky outpaces UTSA, as does 1-3 Auburn and South Florida, and 1-1 Pittsburgh as well.

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 4

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Stanford again leads the pack despite the off week; Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon State and Alabama round out the top 5.  At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts holds down the final position with a two point "lead" over Akron, Idaho and New Mexico State.

As we have mostly concluded the non-conference portion of the schedule, it is worthwhile to look at conference rankings.  The following is the average team score within each FBS conference:

1. SEC           1.429
2. Big 12        1.300
3. Pac-12        1.167
4. ACC           0.750
4. Big 10         0.750
6. Big East      0.125
7. WAC          -0.714
8. Sun Belt     -0.800
9. MWC         -1.300
10. MAC        -1.393
11. C-USA     -1.583

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 3

Week 3 of the Gus Rankings are here.  This week, Gus crowns a new #1-- Stanford, fresh off it's victory over USC.  Stanford's 3 wins come over USC (2 other wins), Duke (1 other win) and San Jose State (1 other win).  Their 4 points lead the other 123 FCS teams.

At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts joins Akron at the bottom of the rankings.  Massachusetts is enjoying their first season as a FBS member, and thus their first season in the Gus Rankings.  This year's other first timers are Texas State, Texas-San Antonio and South Alabama.

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 2

Welcome to this year's installment of the Gus Rankings! As in years past, we'll be providing our own ranking system for college football; you can find a rundown of the methodology here.

Per the system, it's impossible to generate a ranking after one week of games...so Week 2 is the first ranking of the year.  And Gus opines that the best two teams in the land thus far are...Iowa State and UCLA.  Both have a maximum Week 2 score of 2 points; namely, each team has won both games, and each team that they have defeated has won their other game as well.

And it only took two weeks for Gus to determine the worst team in the country!  The University of Akron comes in at -2 points, the lowest score possible.  In the converse of above, each team that Akron has lost to also lost their other game of the season.

For those interested, the Fighting Justin Rosses (Indiana) come in at a tidy #29, tied with board favorite West Virginia.

You can find the Week 2 rankings here.

Letters

The Economist published my response to this article.

SIR – You suggested that the supply of Somali shillings is fairly fixed despite a number of forgeries (“Hard to kill”, March 31st). In fact, it was the introduction of forged notes that ultimately removed the incentive to increase the supply of shillings in circulation.
The 1,000 shillings note exchanged for roughly $0.13 when General Muhammad Aideed employed a printing firm to reproduce the note in 1996. As the number of notes in circulation grew, the exchange value fell to just $0.03, which is the cost of producing an additional note. Since the exchange value equals the cost of production, forgers can no longer profit by increasing the supply. Today, the Somali shilling is a commodity money. Its supply is governed by the cost of ink and paper required to produce a note.

Underdog betting fever: Catch it!

There's a good degree of lazy in all of us. As such, I have really enjoyed the good folks at Beyond the Bets tracking the success of our underdog wagering theory for Major League Baseball. Their latest post is here. The original academic paper is here, it came out in print at Applied Economics a few months ago.

In short, there are a number of reasons to believe that betting on underdogs early in the baseball season will generate persistent profits. It was true over the eleven seasons we looked at, it was really true last year, and seems to be going well again in 2012. Through the first 60 games this year, blanket betting underdogs would generate a profit of 10.31, a rate of a touch under 17%.

Insofar that the viability of a theory is its ability to predict, we've generated a pretty good one here.

Fed Valentines

I love this new meme. And it is just in time for Valentine's day.

Propapalooza V

We're running up against it, time-wise, but nonetheless, it's time for this year's Super Bowl prop battle. You can check out Propapaloozas I, II, III, and IV if you so desire. Like Kim Jong-il and his North Korean soccer squad, I've won every single Propapalooza by a score of 432-1.

You can find this year's props here.

Generally, longtime TPS supporter Rob Holub and I go toe-to-toe, though you are more than welcome to take your five and post them in the comments (paging Will Luther). The general idea is to take bets that are roughly 50/50 in nature (or worse-- that means you want to be finding any line around -120 or higher.) Thus, feel free to take the Giants giving 10.5 to the Patriots at +475...but taking the Patriots on the flip side of that wager at -750 isn't fair game. Winner is who hits the most of their 5!

Matt's picks:

Will first kickoff of Super Bowl XLVI result in a touchback - No: +115

Will the game be tied after 0-0 - Yes: Even (+/-100)

Stephen Gostkowski - Total Field Goals Made 1.5 - Over: -105

Big 10 team points (-63.5) vs. Tom Brady passing yards: -115

Victor Cruz - Will he score a TD? - Yes: +120

Rob's picks:

- Team to score first - New York Giants: -115

- New England rushing yards 102.5 - Under: -115

- Tom Brady 4^th Q TD pass – Yes: -115

- Aaron Hernandez over 5.5 receptions: -115

- LeBron James points/rebs/assists (-3.5) vs. Deion Branch rec yards: -115

As an aside, the novelty props are always enjoyable. I don't believe there is a linkable pdf for the novelty props, but if you click here and then find "Novelty Props" in the right column, there's a whole section of fun things to wager on. Some of my favorites:

- Kelly Clarkson - How Long Will it Take Her to Sing the National Anthem (From first note starts until she completes saying Brave), over/under 1:35. I think that's a bit long-- last year, Christina Aguilera sang the national anthem and I'd say she has a tendency to lengthen it out. I say Clarkson keeps it crisp. Under.

- Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game Thank First:

Coaches/Owner +400

Does not Thank Anyone +250

Family +500

God +125

Teammates +200

I think there's a large chance that either Tom Brady or Eli Manning end up at the MVP here. And I think both of them go right for the teammates first. Teammates, +200. Great value here in my opinion.

- What Color will the Gatorade (or Liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Team:

Blue +1000
Clear/Water even
Lime Green +550
Orange +250
Red +800
Yellow +200

It could be a crapshoot, certainly, and maybe I'm looking too much into it...but aren't both teams prominently blue and red? And who drinks blue Gatorade? Red at 8:1...similarly great value here.

Chinese soccer, or the lack thereof

I think the question posed is interesting-- Why is Chinese soccer so bad?-- and a lack of land space could be a factor but it feels unconvincing. I think the larger issue to explain is the relative success of the women's team compared to the men's-- in my opinion, that makes the problem several degrees of magnitude more complex.

And I can confirm that the Chinese-- quick to trumpet their accomplishments and their future-- are equally quick in bashing their soccer team. Within 30 minutes of arriving in Shanghai our guide had taken to telling jokes with the Chinese soccer program being the clear butt of the laughs.

Puerto Rican baseball decline

I'll break the 2012 ice!

Here is a great piece from the NYT, via MR, on Puerto Rican baseball and its decline-- a beautiful example of unintended consequences and collective action problems. An interesting read, do the Will Luther-whole-thingamajig.

Financing Christmas

From all of us at TPS: Happy Holidays!

Top 10 Economics Papers of 2011

Here is one person's take on the best economics papers of 2011, you'll find a familiar name in the #2 spot...

Paper Money

Matt recently brought up the deviation between exchange value and cost of production for fiat monies. Although he was specifically considering pennies, the same discussion applies to paper monies. As I wrote in the comments of the original post:

If the penny is over valued (exchange value > cost), forgery is encouraged. If the penny is under valued (exchange value < cost), it pays to repurpose existing pennies. [...] In the same way that maintaining overvalued fiat monies requires monopoly privilege, maintaining undervalued fiat monies require the prohibition of repurposing.

Here's the BBC profiling paper money from the Ming Dynasty. The first line of the BBC article reads:

This Chinese Ming dynasty banknote is inscribed with the title Great Ming circulating treasure note and a warning that counterfeiting is punishable by death.

That is one way to discourage entry and thereby maintain the exchange value.

These Kids and their Darn Rap Music...

Fayetteville State University's Supply and Demand video contest has several contenders. Here's one from my colleagues in the GMU Econ Society:



And here's another from the Hayek-loving Dorian Electra:



Best of luck to all participants!

Large Hadron Collider Update: December 13, 2011

It's something we've been following for a while. Here's the new story from CNN.

Years, not months!

A Question for Will Luther

Perhaps I'm overlooking something here, but I think Will can help me out.

I hear people mention that the price of producing a penny is greater than one cent. Moreover, the value of the materials used to make one penny are also greater than one cent. While I think there is something to the discrepancy between the two, I'm going to go with the latter-- the copper and zinc in a penny are worth more than one cent. And people use this as reason to get rid of the penny-- but I'm not quite certain where this eventually leads.

Free of government restriction, people would acquire these pennies, melt them down and use them for their material purpose. The money supply contracts, the copper and zinc supplies increase, and we end up at a new equilibrium. Fair enough.

But people aren't allowed to do that. It's illegal. I'm not saying that I agree with the law, but assume that people follow it and it remains in place for the indefinite future. Money system-wise, what's wrong with having a penny that's would be worth more than one cent in raw materials? What if pennies were made of gold-- what then? I suppose people could trade them as commodities expecting at some point to be able to use them as something other than pennies, but then we're back to the law and it either de jure or de facto not holding. The more valuable the penny, the stronger the incentive to get around the law-- but again, I'm curious what makes it not function as a unit of currency.

Does this penny-made-of-stuff-worth-more-than-one-cent argument necessarily need to go hand-in-hand with the ban on destroying money? If so, that's fine-- I just don't see people arguing it beyond "THE COPPER IN PENNIES IS WORTH TWO CENTS!" What am I missing here? I defer to Will's superior knowledge here and am eager to see where I've messed up.

Charts!

CNN links to a collection of charts from the BBC; it's a quick look so take a gander. I think the unit labor cost presentation is most striking, though perhaps the marginal impact of the next "we're in big financial trouble" graph has been beaten down to near zero levels?