| Team | Price | Volume |
| PATRIOTS | 19.70 | 1734 |
| COWBOYS | 11.30 | 2479 |
| CHARGERS | 10.30 | 2564 |
| COLTS | 8.70 | 1342 |
| JAGUARS | 5.20 | 980 |
| GIANTS | 4.40 | 3070 |
| SAINTS | 4.10 | 1247 |
| EAGLES | 3.80 | 2889 |
| STEELERS | 3.50 | 1325 |
| VIKINGS | 3.50 | 4631 |
| PACKERS | 2.90 | 4506 |
| SEAHAWKS | 2.70 | 1689 |
| BUCCANEERS | 2.40 | 6400 |
| JETS | 2.00 | 3822 |
| BROWNS | 1.90 | 2656 |
| BRONCOS | 1.80 | 1868 |
| PANTHERS | 1.80 | 1755 |
| REDSKINS | 1.60 | 3187 |
| TITANS | 1.10 | 920 |
| BENGALS | 1.00 | 2853 |
| BEARS | 0.90 | 3859 |
| CARDINALS | 0.90 | 1210 |
| TEXANS | 0.90 | 2978 |
| BILLS | 0.80 | 1759 |
| RAMS | 0.80 | 1856 |
| LIONS | 0.70 | 2813 |
| RAIDERS | 0.70 | 1833 |
| RAVENS | 0.70 | 1479 |
| 49ERS | 0.60 | 1893 |
| CHIEFS | 0.50 | 1915 |
| DOLPHINS | 0.50 | 2072 |
| FALCONS | 0.30 | 1333 |
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Prediction Markets: NFL Football
The preseason is over, and my Browns have been decimated by injuries. The regular season starts in 7 days, so I went to TradeSports to see who should be considered the favorites for the Super Bowl. Here they are from highest probability to lowest, and I included the volume so that you can make your own inferences about market thinness for each team.
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39 comments:
What is odd is the market volume for Tampa Bay? Maybe something has happened with them that I don't know about, but it is the most heavily traded team and it is neither at the top or the bottom. I wonder what all of the interest is about.
Just a guess, but Tampa Bay was rumored in the Brett Favre sweepstakes when that was still the lead story day after day on ESPN...that could be a reason, though that is a very high number.
Would love to see the volume of betting and how these end up...might be a source of predictable bias, but then again that's more down the path of my theory of how these things tend to work...
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