Sunday, May 04, 2008


I like looking at graphs, so I'm providing the supporting visuals to Tyler Cowen's post about the diminishing prospect of a recession as better than expected numbers have turned out in GDP and unemployment. While 70% in a CNN poll said they think things are going badly, Intrade (2nd graph) is giving the probability of a recession at just under 30%. As you can see from the first graph, we have yet to experience a quarter where we were poorer than in the previous one for the current "recession". Of course, a recession doesn't actually occur until we see that red line take a downward turn for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
At 5% unemployment rate, comparing this pseudo-recession to the depression just demonstrates how good life has become in the U.S. and much of the world.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Additional hard data can be found here:

The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?