I like looking at graphs, so I'm providing the supporting visuals to
Tyler Cowen's post about the diminishing prospect of a recession as better than expected numbers have turned out in
GDP and
unemployment. While
70% in a CNN poll said they think things are going badly,
Intrade (2nd graph) is giving the probability of a recession at just under 30%. As you can see from the first graph, we have yet to experience a quarter where we were poorer than in the previous one for the current "recession". Of course, a recession doesn't actually occur until we see that red line take a downward turn for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2zfD4Prh0OMgNgcapAQwvrJliXH2I9ghghXJ69n-Pg7AVS0-JurPmn48h6BePolFBI-R_nmJ-c9Mb5Ehm7d_S2qDD-CmjGhCnEyNpTbLNGJ0uzVS5adQz_33QRTVVhb7nFznqgQ/s400/rGDP.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLTTvP4kbym4Nt9oIeJcXth3_qbY6LtXw1MKj_ZnlV0W3WjHQh9pOH-D26euB1o47Aw6pVecJILazhWPcGegw_2eW1cwz4hQQKAD891R_1ViWb-KvtH9g-2ITBsUIOxaPwFxPOjg/s400/recession.png)
At 5% unemployment rate, comparing this pseudo-recession to the depression just demonstrates how good life has become in the U.S. and much of the world.
1 comment:
Additional hard data can be found here:
The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?
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