Monday, September 08, 2008

Intrade Update on Presidential Election

TC at MR points out:
Here is John McCain, up to 48.5 on InTrade or is that just because of the recent Gallup poll?
Here is the Gallup poll he is referring to, and I don't think that is directly the case. I was looking at Intrade this morning after the poll was released and it was still 60/40 Obama, and the media polls have been this close for awhile.

This morning Ohio and Virginia looked much more solidly Obama, but he is trading even there now with McCain. Without looking over every state, they seem to have experienced a good deal of volume and price movement today, which may or may not have to do with the Gallup poll on the broad national average. I think the question is, what has changed people's perceptions about Ohio and Virgina?

Note also that, based on the Intrade electoral map, that Ohio and Virginia are enough to swing the election to McCain.

3 comments:

Mark from Connecticut said...

Do people realize what Palin (and McCain, I guess) stand for? Here's a woman who opposes stem cell research, opposes abortion in ALL cases (including rape and incest), supports a war that is costing us $10 billion a week, favors a huge tax cut for the top 2%, believes that there is no man-made cause to global warming, believes that the market will fix the healthcare crisis, is opposed to gay rights, and wants to teach Creationism in schools. She DOES NOT represent the mainstream.

Leslie Harlow said...

I really think it is time for us to rally for the Presidential candidate who will represent the entire nation - not just the conservatives. This is not only a conservative nation. Obama will not desert any citizens or trample on their rights because he a true believer in the Constitution and understands it.

I have seen the most vehement attacks against "liberals" over the last few weeks, and I have seen anyone who chooses to vote for Obama labeled as a "liberal". This is short-sighted and untrue. My father voted Republican until the Republican party let him down. He decided to vote for Obama because he is extremely intelligent and has excellent judgment. Anyone who has studied him sufficiently to understand how he will govern knows that all Americans will be treated fairly. Our freedoms will be protected, rather than eroded.

I am shocked by the level of self-interest exhibited by so many in this country - shocked and embarrassed. I am shocked that anyone would support religious education in schools, support removal of access to birth control, add more support to the oil companies and glorify war.

The future of the world is at stake. We sorely need thoughtful and intelligent leaders, not brashly aggressive ones.

Please stop the personal attacks and study the candidates more thoroughly.

jacqueline said...

NEOCONS!
LIARS AND ONCE AGAIN A ROVE POLITICAL CAMP.
AMERICA TAKE OFF YOUR ROSE COLOR GLASSES.