Sunday, August 31, 2008

Prediction Markets: NFL Football

The preseason is over, and my Browns have been decimated by injuries. The regular season starts in 7 days, so I went to TradeSports to see who should be considered the favorites for the Super Bowl. Here they are from highest probability to lowest, and I included the volume so that you can make your own inferences about market thinness for each team.
Team Price Volume
PATRIOTS 19.70 1734
COWBOYS 11.30 2479
CHARGERS 10.30 2564
COLTS 8.70 1342
JAGUARS 5.20 980
GIANTS 4.40 3070
SAINTS 4.10 1247
EAGLES 3.80 2889
STEELERS 3.50 1325
VIKINGS 3.50 4631
PACKERS 2.90 4506
SEAHAWKS 2.70 1689
BUCCANEERS 2.40 6400
JETS 2.00 3822
BROWNS 1.90 2656
BRONCOS 1.80 1868
PANTHERS 1.80 1755
REDSKINS 1.60 3187
TITANS 1.10 920
BENGALS 1.00 2853
BEARS 0.90 3859
CARDINALS 0.90 1210
TEXANS 0.90 2978
BILLS 0.80 1759
RAMS 0.80 1856
LIONS 0.70 2813
RAIDERS 0.70 1833
RAVENS 0.70 1479
49ERS 0.60 1893
CHIEFS 0.50 1915
DOLPHINS 0.50 2072
FALCONS 0.30 1333


Anonymous said...

What is odd is the market volume for Tampa Bay? Maybe something has happened with them that I don't know about, but it is the most heavily traded team and it is neither at the top or the bottom. I wonder what all of the interest is about.

Matt E. Ryan said...

Just a guess, but Tampa Bay was rumored in the Brett Favre sweepstakes when that was still the lead story day after day on ESPN...that could be a reason, though that is a very high number.

Would love to see the volume of betting and how these end up...might be a source of predictable bias, but then again that's more down the path of my theory of how these things tend to work...

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